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We’ve left the island of Oz far behind. We’ve flown over the murky, misty, sometimes brackish waters of February. Now, at last, we’ve sighted the land otherwise known as the 2010 tennis season. It’s hard land, made of desert, steel, and asphalt, and the palm trees have to fight to keep from having their heads chopped off in the wind. But it’s bright there, and not too humid, the perfect place to get off the plane and run around. It's also, luckily for most of us, the perfect place to watch other, younger people run around.
That’s the part we know about Indian Wells. What we have less of an idea about this time around is which of those younger people might win. This may not be unusual on the women’s side, where the Williams sisters traditionally let the rest of the WTA field have their 15 minutes in the sun. But it’s truer than ever for the men, where three of the top contenders come in with question marks penciled lightly next to their names. Roger Federer has been sick, Rafael Nadal has been hurt, and Novak Djokovic has been busting racquets, breathing heavily, spouting tears, punching himself, and otherwise leaving everything he’s got on the courts of Dubai and Serbia. We may be in for that rarest of events on the men’s tour: a surprise.
First Quarter
Federer is just getting back onto the court after weathering a lung infection, but he couldn’t ask for a better place to recuperate and make a few bucks while he's at it. It’s conceivable that he’ll be rusty, and it's conceivable that he’ll take a match or two to find his form, which has been the case at a few Masters events in the past. But is it conceivable, even over the course of just two or three sets, that he’ll be rusty enough to lose to Victor Hanescu, or Juan Ignacio Chela, or Marcos Baghdatis? Actually, the Baghdatis match might be a good one; back when he was a contender himself, the Cypriot reached the semis in Indian Wells.
On the other side of Federer’s quarter is Andy Roddick. This isn't the most awesome news that the American could have received, but he's been his usual steady self so far this year, and, after skipping Davis Cup, he won’t come in having done too much roadwork. Roddick is slotted to play Gael Monfils in the round of 16. The question for the Frenchman may be the opposite of Roddick’s—how will his own Davis Cup success this past weekend leave him feeling? Mentally drained, or emotionally energized? Either way, I hope to see Monfils play Richard Gasquet in the second round. To witness French panache on a tennis court, you have to find it early in a big event.
—Sleepers: Marcos Baghdatis, Radek Stepanek
Semifinalist: Federer
Second Quarter
Where does Andy Murray fit into all of this? He’s not sick, he’s not hurt, he’s not tired—maybe every pro should develop a video game addiction; it seems to serve Murray’s body well. Last year he beat Federer here before losing to Nadal in a windy, annoying final. One more thing: It’s hard to top Murray’s draw. Igor Andreev is the seed nearest him, then Ivo Karlovic, then David Ferrer. Then, on the other side of the section, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and, all the way at the bottom, Robin Soderling.
Speaking of which, this might be a telling event for Soderling: How will he meet heightened expectations? So far this year, he’s failed miserably at it, with a first-round loss in Melbourne, and succeeded modestly, with a title in Rotterdam. The latter was indoors, which is Sod’s turf. Desert wind? It can get to him and his towering toss. You might think Indian Wells and its slow hard courts would be kinder to Tsonga, who can generate pace off pretty much anything, and he did play a minor classic here a couple of years ago against Rafael Nadal. But the Frenchman remains supremely unpredictable, as his third-round exit in 2009 attests. A round of 16 matchup with Soderling would be a battle of power and athleticism at its herkiest and jerkiest. Not that it wouldn't be fun to watch them take their cuts.
—Player to watch early: Michael Llodra. Another Frenchman to catch while you can. At least go for the backhand volley. There may never be another quite like it.
Semifinalist: Murray
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It's anyone's guess as to how Nadal will fare in his first tournament back since the Aussie Open. (Paul Crock/AFP/Getty Images)Third Quarter
Nikolay Davydenko rides the top rung here. Consider the Russian another desert curiosity. His efficient blend of offense and defense was designed for the slow-court era—it may even be the first pure product of it—yet he’s only reached the fourth round once. Like Soderling, it could be a telling tournament for Kolya. He’s stepped forward to No. 5 over the last six months and has begun to tentatively be mentioned as a real Slam contender—I’ve evenchallenged the guy to finally go for it, but he hasn’t listened yet. So is Davydenko at least a contender in an event as significant as Indian Wells? He did win in Key Biscayne a couple of years ago, but that’s a tournament where the top guys can be a little worn out, and Davydenko specializes in picking off players when their guard is down, especially late in the season—money doesn't know if it was won in Paris or Kuala Lumpur, after all. He could play Ernests Gulbis in the second round, and Fernando Verdasco, whom he beat in five in Melbourne, in the fourth.
Wait, I’ve been talking about Davydenko this whole time without noticing who’s on the other side of his section: Rafael Nadal, the defending champion, who’s seeded No. 3. The early part of his draw is TBD at the moment—there’s Julien Benneteau, Mario Ancic, and three qualifiers to be named later. But there’s some danger after that, in the hulking form of either John Isner—who has suddenly become an intriguing figure in any bracket—or Sam Querrey. The desert, its golf courses, and its slow tennis courts suit Nadal; he used this event to break out of a slump way back in 2007.
—Sleeper: John Isner
Semifinalist: Davydenko
Fourth Quarter
Novak Djokovic makes a rare appearance on the bottom rung of a Masters bracket. Will his Davis Cup win last weekend give him momentum, or leave him flat when he returns to the tour, as usual? There are a couple of tricky players near him—Mardy Fish, Philipp Kohlschreiber—and potentially an even trickier one farther away in Marin Cilic. At the risk of repeating myself one too many times, I will boldly state that this could very well be a telling event for Cilic, too. He has the breakout Slam performance behind him, he has the contemporary, no-glaring-weakness, no-spectacular-weapon game that works on these courts, and he now has the wise words of new part-time coach Goran Ivanisevic ringing in his ears—hold on, is that a good thing? Best of all, Cilic has the draw. Moya, Bellucci, Ferrero, Monaco: These are the clay-court lovers whom he’ll likely have to face to reach the quarters.
—First-round match for Americans to watch: Taylor Dent vs. Ryan Harrison
Semifinalist: Cilic
—Semifinals: Murray d. Federer; Cilic d. Davydenko
—Final: Cilic d. Murray
Champion: Marin Cilic
Steve Tignor is the executive editor of TENNIS magazine.