Federer comes to Wimbledon in something of an unsettled state. He says he nursed a hip injury through the clay season, never found his rhythm at Roland Garros, and in the Halle final was beaten by Tommy Haas for the first time in a decade. Worse was the way he lost in both Paris and Halle: His forehand went haywire, he squandered a lead in one set, and he let that squandering bother him in the next set. Those last two things aren’t what we expect from Federer. What we do expect, whatever his form is, is that he’ll go deep at Wimbledon—Federer hasn’t lost before the quarterfinals since 2002. He has the motivation; if he wins, he can reclaim the No. 1 ranking. But to do that, he might have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic. In the last two years, he’s 1-6 against them at the majors.
Why He’ll Win:
Federer is 59-7 for his career at Wimbledon, with six titles. He'll need some help in knocking off Nadal or Djokovic, but if he does, he’ll be favored to beat anyone else in the draw.
Why He Won’t:
That 1-6 mark against Nadal and Djokovic at the majors the last two years: He hasn’t been able to get past the Top 2, and he didn’t appear to be getting any closer in his defeat to Djokovic at Roland Garros.
Bottom Line:
Federer needs to tame his errant forehand to have any chance, and an upset by someone else of either Nadal or Djokovic (or both) wouldn’t hurt either.
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