2014 Davis Cup Semifinal Previews

A week after favorites fell in the U.S. Open semifinals, home teams own the advantage in the Davis Cup final four. Our previews, and predictions, of the action starting Friday:

**Palexpo; Geneva, Switzerland

Indoor Hard Court**

Six years after striking gold at the Beijing Olympics, Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka have set their sights on silverware. The pair are aiming to capture Switzerland's first Davis Cup championship, and Federer enters this weekend's semifinals filled with confidence their time is now.

''We obviously are favorites,'' Federer said. ''We have a formidable team. We are playing at home and we chose the surface. We can do it.''

Holding serve is vital on the fast court, and Federer (90 percent) and Wawrinka (87 percent) are two of the top eight players in the world protecting serve this season. Italian singles opponents Fabio Fognini and Simone Bolelli are not nearly as imposing on serve. Both men like to establish rhythm playing rallies, but baseline exchanges could be brief if the Australian Open champion and 17-time Grand Slam champion are serving with authority.

The theatrical Fognini, who will face Wawrinka in Friday's second singles match, plays some of his most inspired tennis in the international team competition. The world No. 17 owns a 14-3 Davis Cup singles record, including a win over Andy Murray in April's quarterfinals. The problem is that two of his three Davis Cup losses have come against big servers on indoor hard courts—he lost to Robin Soderling in the 2010 World Group playoffs and to Milos Raonic in the 2013 quarterfinals. Plus, Fognini hasn't come close to taking a set from Federer in two meetings (and hasn't exactly been percolating with self-belief when the pair meet), and he's just 1-3 lifetime against Wawrinka, with all four matches coming on clay. Italy can't be expected to come through if Fognini can't secure a singles upset.

Fognini is the whimsical and sometimes volatile artist, while Andreas Seppi is the control craftsman who knows his limitations: He is 0-7 vs. Top 10 opponents this year and 6-65 lifetime vs. Top 10 foes. The 6'3" Italian does not serve as big as his size suggests, and he doesn't overwhelm with power, but the steady Seppi won't overplay his shots, either. Wawrinka's heavier serve and his skill in flattening drives down the line have been keys to building a 7-0 hard-court advantage over Seppi, winning 14 of 15 sets they've played. Federer is 10-0 against the 48th-ranked Italian, and has rarely looked stressed commanding hard-court meetings.

[LINEUP UPDATE: Federer, Bolelli to open tie; Seppi, Lorenzi scheduled for doubles.]

Of course, the host knows that Davis Cup ties can stray from the script. Switzerland has split its last four home ties, including a stunning shutout loss to the United States in 2012, when the Swiss paid for the perplexing decision to play in the high altitude of Fribourg, benefiting its massive-serving opposition. However, barring injury—or severe stage fright from Swiss stars—Federer and Wawrinka should lead the red-and-white into its first Davis Cup final since 1992, when Marc Rosset and Jakob Hlasek fell to the American "Dream Team" of Andre Agassi, Jim Courier, Pete Sampras, and John McEnroe.

**Roland Garros; Paris, France

Outdoor Red Clay**

Raising the Davis Cup requires a collective commitment to the cause—and heavy lifting. The iconic trophy weighs about 232 pounds and travels with its own chaperone, who wears white gloves to protect its pristine shine, but Czech fingerprints have covered the Cup recently.

The two-time defending Davis Cup champion rides a streak of 11 consecutive victories into Roland Garros to face a formidable French squad that counters with a quartet of Top 30-ranked players in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet, and Julien Benneteau. The two nations have split 14 previous ties; France is playing to return to the final for the first time since 2010, when Viktor Troicki beat Michael Llodra to clinch Serbia's 3-2 triumph in Belgrade.

Belgrade was also the site of the 2013 final, as 34-year-old Czech Radek Stepanek made history as the oldest man to win a live fifth rubber in a final, and the first man in the 101-year history of the Davis Cup to clinch decisive matches in successive years. Stepanek and Tomas Berdych are 15-1 in Davis Cup doubles matches together, but Berdych must deliver a singles win on Friday to make doubles meaningful.

Berdych is the highest-ranked player in Paris, but will the sixth-ranked Czech play with the confidence of a man who burst out to a 16-3 start this season, reaching the Australian Open semifinals, beating Marin Cilic to win Rotterdam, and falling to Roger Federer in the Dubai final? Or will he be the player who has looked rattled and indecisive at times, posting a 6-4 record since Wimbledon, including three losses to players ranked outside the Top 20?

The 21st-ranked Gasquet is 5-3 vs. Big Berd, but he has been bothered by back and abdominal injuries this season, limiting him to just four clay-court matches. Berdych has won five of seven career meetings against Tsonga, often working over the Frenchman's weaker backhand wing, but the former Roland Garros semifinalists have yet to face off on clay. Berdych has beaten Monfils in three of four meetings, though the elastic Frenchman edged the hard-hitting Berdych, 7-6 (8), 6-4, 6-7 (3), 6-7 (4), 7-5, in their most recent clash at the 2013 French Open.

Lukas Rosol may be best remembered for stunning Rafael Nadal on grass at Wimbledon, but clay is the 27th-ranked Czech's best surface—and the only surface where he owns an above-.500 career record. Rosol is 4-0 lifetime in Davis Cup singles matches played on clay, but none of those wins were against a Top 20 opponent. Left-hander Jiri Vesely, who rounds out the Czech squad, is the least experienced player in the tie with a 1-2 record. He is scheduled to play doubles with Stepanek, though captain Jaroslav Navratil can make a lineup change to Stepanek and Berdych.

[LINEUP UPDATE: Rosol to face Tsonga in second singles; Monfils, Benneteau given doubles duty.]

Home soil is fertile ground for both Monfils and Tsonga. Tsonga has won five of 11 career titles in France; Monfils has yet to lose a Davis Cup match at home. More on La Monf: Three of his five career titles have come in France, both of his Masters finals appearances were in Paris, and his best Grand Slam results—2008 semifinals and three quarterfinal finishes—have come at Roland Garros.

The reigning champion won't give up the grip on the Cup easily, but France has the strength and depth to prevail in a potentially tight tie.

The Pick: France, 3-2