2020 US Open Women's Preview: Embrace the unknown in Grand Slam return

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We’ve had a pandemic. We’ve had withdrawals. We’ve had rumors of a player strike. But it seems that the US Open women’s event is going to happen. The tournament starts Monday, but the draw was released—without the usual ceremony, of course—today.

With so many viable contenders missing, and so many just coming back, it’s virtually impossible to have any idea who might win this thing. And maybe the tournament will be better for it.

Karolina Pliskova is the top seed in Flushing Meadows, where she's finished runner-up before. (Getty Images)

Speaking of unknowable quantities, with Ash Barty and Simona Halep both opting out of the Open, Karolina Pliskova is the No. 1 seed. While she reached the final in 2016, she’s also coming off a loss in her first match at the Western and Southern Open.

Despite her seeding, it’s a long shot that this famously erratic player will put seven straight wins together. Caroline Garcia, who she could face in the second round, and Jen Brady, who she could face in the third, would each seem to have a chance of knocking her out. The American is coming off a title run in Lexington.

Other players to watch include Arantxa Rus, who nearly beat Serena Williams earlier this week, and Angelique Kerber, who won this tournament in 2017 and made a last-second decision to come to New York this year.

First-round matches to watch: Kerber vs. Ajla Tomljanovic; Garcia vs. Jasmine Paolini

Semifinalist: Kerber

Naomi Osaka will play her Western & Southern Open semifinal, and barring a change of heart, will enter the US Open as a title contender. (Getty Images)

Naomi Osaka has been the talk of the Western and Southern Open, first for her high-level of play in the early going, and then for her willingness to withdraw from the tournament to protest the shooting of Jacob Blake. How will that affect her US Open bid? Will she be inspired, or tired, after her exploits this week? If it’s the former, the 2018 champion has a chance to go all the way again. She’ll start against Misaki Doi, and the first seed she could face is Anastasija Sevastova.

But this is not a cakewalk quarter. Petra Kvitova, Anett Kontaveit, Elena Rybakina, Dayana Yastremska and Camila Giorgi are all here, and all have considerable ball-striking skills. So is Coco Gauff.

First-round matches to watch:

—Sevastova vs. Gauff. The Latvian’s spinny finesse game may present a stern test for the Florida teen.

—Yastremska vs. Astra Sharma. If Astra Sharma is half as good as her name, she’ll be in the Top 10 soon.

—Kontaveit vs. Danielle Collins; Jessica Pegula vs. Marie Bouzkova

Semifinalist: Osaka

Serena Williams' form is a question mark after a pair of three-set losses in warm-up tournaments. (Getty Images)

With all of the withdrawals, Serena Williams has been elevated to the No. 3 seed, which will keep her away from the game’s biggest hitters early. She’ll start her campaign for her 24th major title against Kristie Ahn, and she could face Sloane Stephens in the third round. After her losses this summer to Shelby Rogers and Maria Sakkari, Serena would seem to be vulnerable to an upset on a bad day. But she has also reached the final at the Open each of the last two years. She could play Sakkari again in the fourth round.

Garbiñe Muguruza is on the other side of this quarter, and is an intriguing figure in New York. We haven’t seen much of her during the lockdown, but she did read the final of a hard-court major in 2020, way back at the Australian Open. Muguruza and Madison Keys could collide in a fourth-round slugfest.

Semifinalist: Muguruza

At long last, Sofia Kenin will have an opportunity to win another Grand Slam title. (Getty Images)

Sofia Kenin will try, again, to pick up where she left off after her title in Melbourne. Her first post-lockdown match, against Alizé Cornet this week, ended in defeat, but over the course of those two sets Kenin did begin to find her groove. She’ll start against Yanina Wickmayer, and could get a challenge from Ons Jabeur in the third round.

Kenin will be joined by a lost of notables and potential contenders, including three-time open champ Kim Clijsters; Jo Konta, Victoria Azarenka, Elise Mertens, who have all made the semis of the Western and Southern Open; and Karolina Muchova, who will start against Venus Williams, in what could be the best first-rounder of the tournament.

First-round matches to watch: V. Williams vs. Muchova; Konta vs. Heather Watson; Clijsters vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova; Vera Zvonareva vs. Leylah Fernandez; Kenin vs. Wickmayer

Semifinalist: Konta

Semifinals: Osaka d. Kerber; Muguruza d. Konta