2023 Western & Southern Open, women's preview: Will Cincinnati restore stability, or add more uncertainty to, the pecking order?

WATCH: The US Open is increasing prize money and adding video review | The Break

As I write this, the women’s tournament in Montreal hasn’t wrapped up yet. But we do know that the WTA pecking order got a little more uncertain last week.

The world’s Top 2, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka didn’t look especially sharp. Will that leave more room for the next tier—Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, and even Liudmila Samsonova among them—as we near the US Open? And how about Ons Jabeur? The Wimbledon finalist returns this week in Cincy.

First Quarter

Like her fellow No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz on the men’s side, Iga Swiatek never looked quite herself in Montreal. She made the semis, but she had to struggle past Karolina Muchova and Danielle Collins to get there, before losing to Pegula. For most of her week, unforced errors abounded.

Last year, Swiatek won the US Open without winning either Canada or Cincy, so a title this week isn’t essential. But a little more consistency would be a good thing.

She could face Collins again in the second round; Veronika Kudermetova or, possibly Zheng Qinwen after that; and Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova or defending Cincy champ Caroline Garcia in the quarters.

Could use a win: Garcia. She’s defending big points in Cincy, and is 0-2 so far in the States.

First-round match to watch: Kudermetova vs. Venus Williams

Semifinalist: Vondrousova

Second Quarter

Rybakina and Gauff are the Top 2 seeds in this section, and both may like their chances of winning their first US Open title next month. Gauff won D.C., and, as of this writing, Rybakina was in the Montreal semifinals.

Coco, who came down to earth in a loss to Pegula in Montreal, could face Petra Kvitova or an in-form, but potentially tired, Liudmila Samsonova, in the round of 16. Rybakina may get an early challenge from Jelena Ostapenko or Karolina Pliskova.

Also here: Belinda Bencic

Semifinalist: Rybakina

Third Quarter

Can Pegula set herself up as a serious threat to win her first major title at her home-state Slam? She’s coming off wins over Gauff and Swiatek in Montreal, and she should like the quicker courts in Cincy.

But there are obstacles: Pegula’s potential third-round opponent, Madison Keys, won the title here in 2019. And her potential quarterfinal opponent, Maria Sakkari, made the final two weeks ago in D.C.

First-round match to watch: Muchova vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia

Semifinalist: Keys

Fourth Quarter

Sabalenka and Jabeur are the top seeds here. Each is trying to shake off a Wimbledon collapse: Sabalenka to Jabeur in the semifinals, and Jabeur to Vondrousova in the final.

Sabalenka didn’t get back off the ground in Montreal, but she made the semifinals in Cincy a year ago, and has yet to suffer through a slump in 2023. She could play Daria Kasatkina or Elina Svitolina—or possibly Caroline Wozniacki—in the round of 16.

First-round matches to watch: Svitolina vs. Wozniacki; Victoria Azarenka vs. Barbora Krejcikova; Jennifer Brady vs. Donna Vekic

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Semifinals: Rybakina d. Vondrousova; Sabalenka d. Keys

Final: Sabalenka d. Rybakina