2024 BNP Paribas Open women's final preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari

Iga Swiatek vs. Maria Sakkari

The Pole and the Greek haven’t played since they met in the final in Indian Wells in 2022. That’s a day Swiatek will want to remember on Sunday, and Sakkari will want to forget—at least not obsess over. Swiatek won the title going away, 6-4, 6-1, and didn’t lose another match until Wimbledon.

At that point, these two women seemed to both be in contention for the No. 1 ranking. Two years later, we know who won that race. In fact, their careers have gone largely in opposite directions since. Iga has won three major titles and held the top ranking for most of the past 24 months. Maria lost in the first round at three of the four Slams last year; her No. 9 ranking seems surprisingly high based on those results.

“It’s actually pretty crazy that last time we played was two years ago,” Sakkari says. “I would say we are very different [from] two years ago, both of us.”

At the moment, Sakkari is very different from what she was like just two weeks ago. After starting the season 5-4, she’s now working with veteran coach David Witt, and the switch has obviously done her good. Of her five wins in Indian Wells, four have come in three sets. Sakkari has always struggled to fend off her nerves in clutch situations, but she has been impressive in that regard this week. Against Coco Gauff in the semifinals, she blew a 5-2 lead in the second set, lost it in a tiebreaker, yet still hung in to win the third. When it was over, she and Witt pointed to their heads. That’s where it starts for everyone in tennis, but it’s especially true for Sakkari.

Sakkari shouldn’t lack confidence against the WTA’s No. 1. She has lost her last two meetings to Swiatek, but she still holds a 3-2 lead in their career head to head. That shows her game can be effective against Iga’s, though she’s probably wise not to put much, or any, stock in their history.

“Having that lead probably doesn’t mean anything, because she’s the best player in the world right now,” Sakkari says. “I’m going to try and keep that lead…but it’s going to be very, very tricky.”

Tricky indeed. Swiatek has been in romping mode so far in Indian Wells; she has lost just 17 games in five matches. When she has time to set up for her shots and pick her targets, Swiatek is exceptionally tough to beat, and the slow hard courts here give her time to do that. Sakkari will need to keep Swiatek on defense by making first serves, and take the offensive when Iga throws in her spinny second serve. Sakkari says she has been trying to get back to attacking more with her return of serve. She probably won’t have other choice on Sunday.

Winner: Swiatek