2024 Wimbledon women's draw takeaways: Can Iga Swiatek's momentum survive a new surface?

Is Iga Swiatek ready to win a Grand Slam title on grass?

This is the first question we have to ask about the women’s tournament. Everything else right now is contingent on the answer. Swiatek is the long-running WTA No. 1, a multiple major winner, and she comes in having won three straight titles in Madrid, Rome, and Paris. If she can’t win Wimbledon now, when can she?

Despite her recent record, there are a few reasons why she should only be a slight favorite for this title.

First, she’s never made it past the quarterfinals here, and is just 9-4 at Wimbledon, compared to 35-2 at Roland Garros. Second, she could face Jelena Ostapenko, a player who is 4-0 against her, in the fourth round. Third, if she makes the semis, she might play former champion Elena Rybakina, instead of her recent regular semifinal opponent, Coco Gauff, who is in the other half. Swiatek is 11-1 against Gauff, and 2-4 against Rybakina.

Will switching seed spots have any effect on Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka?

For the first time, Gauff’s name will appear at the far end of a Grand Slam draw. She’s the No. 2 seed, and Sabalenka, who has been in that position for most of the past two years, will drop to No. 3.

Both moves may have their upsides. For Gauff, the most obvious benefit is that she won’t have to play Swiatek, her semifinal nemesis, until the final this time. But I actually think Sabalenka’s move downward may benefit her more. She spent the spring in a highly pressurized two-woman race at the top with Swiatek. They met in the Madrid and Rome finals, and looked likely to do the same in Paris. Now, at No. 3, she may be able to play a little more under the radar, with expectations slightly lowered; she won’t be as closely compared to Swiatek as the tournament progresses. For an athlete who has had her high-strung moments, that might help.

Landing in Gauff’s half, rather than Swiatek’s, is a bonus.

Which of the Top 4 seeds has the rockiest road ahead?

I’ve mentioned Swiatek’s potential collision with the Iga-slayer, Ostapenko. The top seed may also have to contend with former champion Angelique Kerber in the third round, and last year’s winner, Marketa Vondrousova, in the quarterfinals.

One quarter down, Rybakina, the 2022 champ, doesn’t have any obvious obstacles early. She would be a solid favorite against Caroline Wozniacki, Leylah Fernandez, Anna Kalinskaya, or even No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula, if they were to meet in the quarters. But there is one wild card in this section: Two-time runner-up Ons Jabeur.

As for Sabalenka, the next-highest-seed in her quarter is Zheng Qinwen. Of more interest right now, though, might be Mirra Andreeva. The Russian teen beat Sabalenka at Roland Garros, and they could meet again in the fourth round here.

Finally, Gauff will be happy not to have to contemplate playing Swiatek until the final. But, with Madison Keys, Naomi Osaka, and Victoria Azarenka in her section, she won’t want to look quite that far ahead just yet.

What are the most intriguing first-round matchups?

Ostapenko vs. Ajla Tomljanovic. The recently returned Aussie made a final last week in Birmingham. She has also had words with Ostapenko at Wimbledon in the past. Swiatek will surely have one eye on this match.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Emma Raducanu. The Brit has played decent tennis during the grass season so far. Now she’ll go back under the withering Wimbledon microscope.

Karolina Muchova vs. Paula Badosa. The ever-injured Muchova may be injured yet again—she pulled out of Eastbourne this week with a wrist issue. But if she’s ready, this should be a good one.

Osaka vs. Diane Parry. We saw Osaka’s clay potential in Paris; now she’ll try her luck on another surface she has never liked. Three wins might get her a date with Gauff.

And the winner will be…

During clay season, the list of contenders narrows to one or two players. On grass, it opens back up—the last two Wimbledon winners were Rybakina and Vondrousova, neither of whom was on the short list of favorites. So, prepare for carnage.

But since her 2022 victory here, Rybakina has established herself as a fixture in the Top 3, and has played too well overall in 2024 not to cash in with a significant title at some point. I know I said pretty much the same thing when I (erroneously) picked her to win Roland Garros last month. But I’ll go ahead and say it again now.

Semifinals: Rybakina d. Vondrousova; Sabalenka d. Gauff

Final: Rybakina d. Sabalenka