2025 ATP Finals preview: Will Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner finish year-end No. 1 after Turin?

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have split 2025 just about down the middle.

Each has won two majors. Each has won nearly 90 percent of his matches—Sinner is 53-6, with five titles, for an 89.83 winning percentage; Alcaraz is 67-8, with eight titles, for an 89.33 percentage. They’ve traded the No. 1 ranking back and forth twice in the last three months. At this point, it’s hard to tell which one has it: Sinner is ranked No. 1, but Alcaraz is the top seed at the ATP Finals, which starts on Sunday in Turin.

That’s where the Spaniard and the Italian will finally decide who finishes No. 1. Sinner, who was suspended for three months in the winter and spring, has done well to make it close. But even in front of his home fans in Italy, he’ll still face an uphill battle. Coming into the Finals, Alcaraz leads by roughly 1,000 points. To overtake him, Sinner needs to win the tournament ,and hope that Alcaraz doesn’t make the final. Alcaraz, meanwhile, needs to win three matches to clinch No. 1.

Here’s a look at their paths through Turin, and the other six players who could spoil a Sincaraz showdown.

Who has the easier road to the semis, Alcaraz or Sinner?

Sinner is in the Bjorn Borg Group, with Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, and either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Lorenzo Musetti

Alacaraz is in the Jimmy Connors Group, with Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur.

Read more: Alcaraz, Djokovic drawn in same ATP Finals group; Novak's participation still in question

The conditions, the court, the facility, the fans: All of them favor Sinner. Last year he went 5-0 in the same arena to win the title. He has also won his last 26 matches on indoor hard courts, and he’ll be surrounded by supporters in Turin. Last week at the Paris Masters, Sinner beat two of his group mates, Zverev and Shelton, in straight sets. In the final, he beat another potential Turin foe, Auger Aliassime, in a slightly tighter two-setter. Sinner said after the US Open that he needed more variety. Voilà: Since then, he’s 16-1, and his drop shot was a big part of his Paris win.

Alcaraz, by contrast, hasn’t thrived in Turin. He’s 3-4 in two appearances, and last year he failed to make the semifinals after losing to Zverev and Casper Ruud. Is he destined to struggle during the indoor season, like his countryman Rafael Nadal, who never won this title? Alcaraz’s opening-round defeat to Cam Norrie in Paris wasn’t a great sign. He’ll need three wins overall in Turin, and he’ll be favored to beat all three of his group-mates. That said, Djokovic is still not an easy out, and Fritz made the final here last year.

Who else might make the semis—and spoil a Sincaraz finale?

Taylor Fritz may not have a glide path to the semis, but he does have an opportunity. A pair of them, in fact. The American is a combined 1-15 against two of his group mates—0-11 vs. Djokovic; 1-4 vs. Alcaraz. But this court, where he made the final a year ago, might be the ideal place for him to improve on those records. Fritz had a semi-breakthrough in September, when he beat Alcaraz in Laver Cup. Can he do it again when it matters more?

Novak Djokovic would also seem to have a chance to grab a little of the late-career glory that has eluded him in 2025. He’s in Alcaraz’s group, which is better than being in Sinner’s, at least at this event. He’ll come in with some momentum, having reached the final in Athens this week. He’ll only have to play two-of-three sets. And nobody knows how to manage his way through this tournament better than he does. Djokovic has won it a record seven times; as recently as 2023, he beat Alcaraz and Sinner back-to-back for the title. He should make it interesting.

Alexander Zverev has been here many times before as well, and even won the title the first year the event was in Turin. This time, though, he comes in as something of a wild card in the Sinner group. In Vienna last month, Zverev pushed Sinner all the way to 7-5 in the third in the final. A week later in Paris, though, Sinner sent him packing 6-0, 6-1. Which version of the German will we see here? He made the semis, and was a game away from the final, in 2024.

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Finally, how about Ben Shelton? His recent shoulder injury, and his status as a Turin rookie, would seem to indicate a quick exit for the American. But I’ll be interested to see how he fares this late in the season, far from home, against the tour’s best. He won big when he was surging during the summer. Can he win when he’s not on the same kind of roll?

Also: Wouldn’t it be nice to see him last long enough to face Djokovic—for the first time since their hang-up-the-phone incident at the 2023 US Open—in the semifinals?

Who’s going to win?

Semifinals: Sinner d. Alcaraz; Djokovic d. Fritz

Final: Sinner d. Djokovic