2025 ATP Finals preview: Will Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner finish year-end No. 1?

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have split 2025 just about down the middle.

Each has won two majors. Each has won nearly 90 percent of his matches—Sinner is 53-6, with five titles, for an 89.83 winning percentage; Alcaraz is 67-8, with eight titles, for an 89.33 percentage. They’ve traded the No. 1 ranking back and forth twice in the last three months. At this point, it’s hard to tell which one has it: Sinner is ranked No. 1, but Alcaraz is the top seed at the ATP Finals, which starts on Sunday in Turin.

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That’s where the Spaniard and the Italian will finally decide who finishes No. 1. Sinner, who was suspended for three months in the winter and spring, has done well to make it close. But even in front of his home fans in Italy, he’ll still face an uphill battle. Coming into the Finals, Alcaraz leads by roughly 1,000 points. To overtake him, Sinner needs to win the tournament and hope that Alcaraz doesn’t make the final. Alcaraz, meanwhile, needs to win three matches to clinch No. 1.

Here’s a look at their paths through Turin, and the other six players who could spoil a Sincaraz showdown.

Who has the easier road to the semis, Alcaraz or Sinner?

Sinner is in the Bjorn Borg Group, with Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime

Alcaraz is in the Jimmy Connors Group, with Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti

Read more: Musetti to make career debut at ATP Finals in Turin after Djokovic withdraws

The conditions, the court, the facility, the fans: All of them favor Sinner. Last year he went 5-0 in the same arena to win the title. He has also won his last 26 matches on indoor hard courts, and he’ll be surrounded by supporters in Turin. Last week at the Paris Masters, Sinner beat two of his group mates, Zverev and Shelton, in straight sets. In the final, he beat another potential Turin foe, Auger Aliassime, in a slightly tighter two-setter. Sinner said after the US Open that he needed more variety. Voilà: Since then, he’s 16-1, and his drop shot was a big part of his Paris win.

Alcaraz, by contrast, hasn’t thrived in Turin. He’s 3-4 in two appearances, and last year he failed to make the semifinals after losing to Zverev and Casper Ruud. Is he destined to struggle during the indoor season, like his countryman Rafael Nadal, who never won this title? Alcaraz’s opening-round defeat to Cam Norrie in Paris wasn’t a great sign. He’ll need three wins overall in Turin, and he’ll be favored to beat all three of his group-mates.

Who else might make the semis—and spoil a Sincaraz finale?

Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger Aliassime spent the last month in limbo, as Novak Djokovic publicly wondered whether he would show up in Turin. Djokovic kept them, and everyone else, in doubt right up until the last possible moment—even after the groups had been made. Finally, on Saturday, he beat Musetti in the Athens final to eliminate him from Turin, only to turn around and withdraw, thereby letting Musetti back in.

Still, there may be an upside for Auger Aliassime and Musetti: Fighting until the end should make them sharp for Turin. Over the past month, FAA reached the Paris Masters final, while Musetti was runner-up in Athens and a semifinalist in Vienna. Maybe they can take inspiration from Saturday’s winner in Riyadh. Elena Rybakina was the last player into the WTA Finals, and she walked away with the title.

Taylor Fritz, by contrast, has known for a while that he was bound to qualify, and he has been in cruise control since late-September. After making the final in Tokyo, he went out early in Shanghai, Basel and Paris. But just like FAA and Musetti, the American will be pleased to see Djokovic go. He’s 0-11 against the Serb. Now he’ll be favored to finish second in the Connors group, and get a crack at making his second straight final in Turin. Fritz beat Alcaraz for the first time in September at Laver Cup. Can he do it again, when it matters more?

Alexander Zverev has been here many times before as well, and even won the title the first year the event was in Turin. This time, though, he comes in as something of a wild card in the Sinner group. In Vienna last month, Zverev pushed Sinner all the way to 7-5 in the third in the final. A week later in Paris, though, Sinner sent him packing 6-0, 6-1. Which version of the German will we see here? He made the semis, and was a game away from the final, in 2024.

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Finally, how about Ben Shelton? His recent shoulder injury, and his status as a Turin rookie, would seem to indicate a quick exit for the American. But I’ll be interested to see how he fares this late in the season, far from home, against the tour’s best. He won big when he was surging during the summer. Can he win when he’s not on the same kind of roll?

Who’s going to win?

Semifinals: Sinner d. Fritz; d. Alcaraz d. Auger Aliassime

Final: Sinner d. Alcaraz