2025 Australian Open men's semifinal preview: Ben Shelton vs. Jannik Sinner

The Italian and the American know each other well. They’ve faced off five times over the past 15 months. Like just about everyone else who has run up against Sinner during that time, Shelton has come out on the losing end more times than not. He won their first meeting, in a third-set tiebreaker in Shanghai in the fall of 2023; since then, Sinner has won four straight without dropping a set.

Looking at Sinner’s current form, and the scoreline of his last match, it’s hard to see a radically different outcome for this semifinal. The top seed has been his usual cool, calm, and technically superior self, and he only took his level up another notch in the quarterfinals, when he beat No. 8 seed Alex de Minaur by the increasingly one-sided scores of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1.

In a break with top-player tradition, Sinner even said that he couldn’t have played much better.

Read more: The mild-mannered Tyrolean Terror Jannik Sinner has been steely at the Australian Open

“I felt like today was very great match from my side,” he said. “I served very well. Breaking quite early in each set was very important for me and for my game. So, yeah, for sure was the best match of the tournament so far.”

If you’re Shelton, do those sound like ominous words? With his steely blend of pace and accuracy, Sinner’s A-game is close to unbeatable right now, especially on hard courts.

But Shelton does have at least one thing to hang his hat on: He’s not de Minaur.

Read more: Shelton becomes youngest American man to reach Australian Open semifinals in 22 years

The American has a serve that's hard to break, even for Sinner. In each of the four matches he has lost to him, Shelton has pushed one set to a tiebreak. Shelton is also, as he wrote on the camera lens after his last win, “battle tested.” While Sinner has been comfortable ahead most of the time at this event, Shelton has been in the trenches, digging through long matches and tiebreaker sets, and finding a way to survive each time. That’s a point of pride for Shelton, who says he has made himself into more than just a big serve.

“When I was playing here in 2023, US Open 2023, I felt like everything had to be perfect,” he says. “I was red-lining. Everything had to fall in line for that to happen, for me to have those runs.

“In the matches here, everything hasn’t been perfect. I had one good serving day out of my five matches. I’ve had to pick up the slack with everything else in my game. I think I’m a much better returner right now than in the past.”

Shelton says that he’s been “a bit more conservative” in his baseline rallies here, which he could afford to be, because the highest seed he has faced has been No. 16 Lorenzo Musetti. That will probably have to change against Sinner, who will punish any ball left hanging in the mid-court.

But that doesn’t mean Shelton will go for broke at all times.

“You have to choose your moments, still be confident in the things that you trust,” he says of playing Sinner. “I don’t think I’ll be redlining ... I think that a more aggressive game style, that’s taking the ball a little earlier or serve and volleying more.”

Shelton has the proverbial puncher’s chance in this match. He has the serve to keep the score close. He likes a stage. He should feel comfortable in tiebreakers. He may just need a few well-timed winners to take a set, and put some doubt in Sinner’s mind.

But if Shelton has a puncher’s chance, Sinner still has a better one.

While Shelton has been playing during the day, Sinner has mostly been scheduled in the evening, which is when this semifinal will be played. More important, Sinner has made himself into the king of hard courts, and the king of big matches, over the past year. He’s handled whatever has been thrown at him, and there’s no reason to think that will change now. Winner: Sinner