2025 Australian Open women's semifinal preview: Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa are close in age—26 and 27, respectively—and they rose up in the ranks at roughly the same time. But while they were becoming rivals, they were also becoming friends. So Sabalenka sounded sincere when she said that she was pleased to see that Badosa, over the past year, had shaken off her injuries and her demons, and reclaimed her place among the women’s tour elite.

“She’s a great player and she’s been through a lot,” Sabalenka said. “Now she’s back on her best game. I’m really happy to see that.

“I’m really excited to face her in the semis.”

Of course, Sabalenka may also be more excited to see Badosa on the other side of the net than the player she beat in the quarterfinals, No. 3 seed Coco Gauff. If her opponent had been Gauff, Sabalenka would have faced someone who beat her just a couple of months ago at the WTA Finals. As it is, she has won her last five matches vs. Badosa, dating back to 2021.

Not that Sabalenka is going to take any Grand Slam semifinal opponent lightly.

“I saw her games here. She’s playing really great tennis, I think,” Sabalenka says. “I think I just need to focus on myself, and I have to stay aggressive, and I have to put her under a lot of pressure.”

Sabalenka is the solid favorite. She’s No. 1 in the world, she hasn’t lost at this tournament since 2022, and she has a 5-2 record against her opponent. But she has had a couple of hiccups so far in Melbourne. Clara Tauson and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, both sluggers, were able to knock Sabalenka off balance with their own power, and pierce her self-confidence for significant stretches.

She’s a great player and she’s been through a lot. Now she’s back on her best game. I’m really happy to see that. I’m really excited to face her in the semis. Aryna Sabalenka

Can Badosa do something similar? She’s not a missile-launcher in the mode of Tauson and Pavlyuchenkova, but she does hit with force and depth. At her best, the way she was against Gauff, she does it more consistently and accurately than either of those two.

It’s possible that Badosa’s baseline attack could rattle Sabalenka, who will face the pressure of expectations that come with trying to three-peat at a Slam. But it’s also possible that Badosa’s ground strokes could provide Sabalenka with exactly the amount of pace she needs to belt the ball back even harder. We’ll see which way the ball bounces, and how these two friends react to the moment, and to each other. Winner: Sabalenka