2025 Davis Cup Finals preview: Can a Jannik Sinner-less Italy three-peat at home?

We’ve had the WTA Finals. We’ve had the ATP Finals. Now it’s time for the true finale of the 2025 season—for real this time. The eight-nation Davis Cup Final begins on Tuesday, and concludes on Sunday, on indoor hard courts in Bologna, Italy.

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The quarterfinal schedule looks like this:

Tuesday: France vs. Belgium

Wednesday: Italy vs. Austria

Thursday: Spain vs. Czechia and Argentina vs. Germany

Italy is the two-time defending champion, but the team will be without its MVP from 2023 and 2024, Jannik Sinner. In the grand tradition of top-ranked players, he has done his duty for his country and decided, at least for this year, to prioritize his health.

How will Sinner’s absence affect the competition, and is there a team that could topple the Italians on home soil? Here are three things to watch for over the next six days in Bologna.

Read more: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz advocate for Davis Cup to be held every other year

Carlos Alcaraz is going for his first Davis Cup. Will it matter for his future GOAT résumé?

In the amateur era, Davis Cup meant more to the players than the majors did. In the Open Era, that pecking order has been reversed: Slams mean more than Davis Cup—a lot more, these days. But top players have still considered it important to bring at least one team title back home—after that, their teammates are on their own.

If you look back at the men who have been ranked No. 1 over the past 50 years, from Borg to McEnroe to Lendl to Wilander to Becker to Sampras to Hewitt to the Big 3 and now on to Sinner, virtually all of them have a Cup to their names. That includes guys who were only in the top position for a short time, like Marat Safin, Andy Roddick, and Andy Murray. Rafael Nadal helped Spain to five.

Is it time for Alcaraz to put his name in that roll call? And will it matter to his rivalry with Sinner whether he gets a Cup or not? Probably not—their head-to-head record and major-title haul will determine who is rated higher in the end. But Nadal’s five Cups will likely be a motivating factor for Alcaraz. By now, Davis Cup is in the Spanish blood, and his captain this week, David Ferrer, will be a living link to the team’s glory years.

Alcaraz’s presence may make Spain the favorites. He’ll be backed up by a solid No. 2 singles player in Jaume Munar, and a top-tier doubles player in Marcel Granollers. But they’ll need to be sharp out of the gate. Their quarterfinal opponent, Czechia, led by Jiri Lehecka and Jakub Mensik, will be a tough out on indoor hard courts. Alcaraz’s match at No. 1 will likely be a must-win.

Who might make an unlikely hero?

Davis Cup has traditionally been the place where the sport’s second-tier players can grab a share of glory and history. For instance, when Serbia won its first title in 2010, Novak Djokovic was the MVP, but he still needed Viktor Troicki to win the deciding rubber.

There are plenty of people who could fit that bill this week.

Even without Sinner, Italy has a strong squad, led by Flavio Cobolli, Lorenzo Sonego, and Matteo Berrettini, and they’ll be heavy favorites in their quarterfinal with Austria. But at some point they may also need help from their top-notch doubles team, Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori, who are coming off a semifinal appearance at the ATP Finals in Turin.

Alexander Zverev won an Olympic gold medal for Germany, but, like Alcaraz, he doesn’t have a Davis Cup title. If he can win at No. 1 this week, his team might be able to back him up. He’ll likely have Jan-Lennard Struff at No. 2 singles, and a perennial Top 20 team, Tim Puetz and Kevin Krawietz, playing for the doubles point.

Read more: Alexander Zverev dubs 2025 "incredibly unsatisfying" after ATP Finals exit

Argentina may care about Davis Cup more than any other nation, and its team hasn’t won since 2016. No. 1 Francisco Cerundolo is 7-4 in the competition, and says it brings out the best in him. But the Argies’ secret weapon may be Horacio Zeballos, a Top 5 doubles player. Their quarterfinal with Germany should be spirited.

As mentioned above, the Czechs, with Lehecka and Mensik leading the way in singles, have a strong lineup. If they can find a way past Spain in the quarters, they could be a surprise challenger for the title.

Who is going to win?

I don’t think there’s a clear favorite.

Italy is at home, has won the last two years, and may have the strongest mix of singles and doubles players. But Sinner, who was a lock at No. 1, and could fill in passably in doubles, will obviously be missed.

Spain has the best player in Alcaraz, but they have a potentially tough draw—Czechia in the quarters, the winner of Germany-Argentina in the semis, and, possibly, Italy in the final. Munar is a respectable No. 2, but the indoor hard courts in Bologna may not help him against someone like Mensik. Argentina, Germany, and Italy may all have better doubles teams.

Argentina and Germany should be evenly matched in the quarters, and the winner will be competitive with Spain or Czechia in the semis. Both teams have good No. 1 singles players and doubles teams.

And how about France? Rinderknech, Moutet, Mpetshi Perricard, Bonzi and Herbert should get them past Belgium in the quarters. After that, they would need some inspired play to upset Italy.

Final: Italy vs. Spain

Winner: Italy