Will the Carlos Alcaraz-Jannik Sinner rivalry culminate in a first Grand Slam final? | 2025 Roland Garros men's preview

Last week in Rome, Carlos Alcaraz couldn’t help looking ahead—all the way to the Roland Garros final. The defending champion in Paris said he was happy to be back up to No. 2 in the rankings, because it meant he couldn’t face the ATP’s No. 1 player, Jannik Sinner, until the final. That was an improvement on 2024, when the two played a five-set semi.

Read more: Sinner, Draper, Djokovic headline stacked men's draw

For the first time, Alcaraz and Sinner, the best male players of the last 18 months, will be seeded No. 1 and 2 at a Grand Slam event. It has taken a while, but the cream of the next generation has officially risen to the top.

That said, a first major final between the Spaniard and the Italian remains many matches, and many twists and turns, away. What else should we be looking for over the next two weeks in Paris? Here are three highlights from the draw.

Alcaraz’s and Sinner’s paths look roughly equal in difficulty

One thing we can generally count on at a Slam: The top players won’t end up facing all of the opponents we thought they would when the draw came out. Some obstacles will get knocked to the side in upsets, while difficult challenges will loom up seemingly out of nowhere.

On paper, though, Sinner and Alcaraz should face remarkably similar levels of opposition.

• Each will have a possibly tricky opener

Sinner will face Arthur Rinderknech. The Frenchman, who has been ranked as high as No. 42, has a win in three matches against the Italian, and he’ll have the crowd.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, will play Kei Nishikori. While Nishikori is 35 and ranked outside the Top 50 now, he’s a three-time quarterfinalist in Paris.

• Each could face a dangerous local

Arthur Fils is perhaps the most intriguing player in the men’s field. France’s latest hope has never won a match at his home Slam, but he has had a breakout spring that has left him at a career-high No. 14. His draw has also left him on course for a fourth-round collision with Sinner. They’ve played once, in 2023, and Sinner won in straight sets indoors.

If Alcaraz wins his first two matches, he could play another young French hope in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The towering 21-year-old is just 6-9 on the year, and he didn’t win a match—or even a set—in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, or Rome. But he did win a recent Challenger in Bordeaux, and he has a serve no one wants to face.

• Each could play a recent Masters 1000 champion in the quarters

Two players in Sinner’s quarter fit that description: Jack Draper, winner in Indian Wells, and Jakub Mensik, winner in Miami. Draper, perhaps more importantly, also made a Masters final on clay in Madrid. Sinner is 1-1 vs. Draper, and has never faced Mensik,

Alcaraz’s most likely quarterfinal opponent will be two-time Roland Garros runner-up, and 2025 Madrid champion, Casper Ruud. Alcaraz leads their H2H 4-1, but Ruud won their most recent meeting, indoors in Turin last November.

If they make the semis, Sinner and Alcaraz will have earned it.

The draw gods have done what they can for Novak Djokovic

One very notable name that didn’t appear in Sinner’s and Alcaraz’s quarters: Novak Djokovic. The three-time champion is seeded sixth this year, but that demotion hasn’t hurt his chances. The highest seed in his quarter is a semi-slumping Alexander Zverev, and the highest seed he could face in the fourth round is an even more out-of-form Daniil Medvedev.

Can Djokovic take advantage of the draw gods’ favor? His 2025 campaign doesn’t make it look likely. He played poorly in Monte Carlo and Madrid, split with coach Andy Murray, and withdrew from Rome. Last year at Roland Garros, he was stopped by a knee injury that required surgery.

At 38, seven best-of-five-set wins over two weeks on clay would seem to be a long shot. Before we close the book on Djokovic’s chances, though, a few things. He beat Alcaraz for a gold medal on these courts last summer. He hasn’t lost a completed match at RG since 2022, and hasn’t lost to anyone other than Rafael Nadal there since 2019. And we know he still wants that 25th major. He may not get to the finish line in Paris, but he’ll surely be a tougher out than the guy we’ve seen so far this spring.

Who are dark horses, and what are the early-round matches to watch?

• Arthur Fils: The 20-year-old Frenchman may be hungrier than anyone else for a first-round win. So far he has fizzled under the weight of the home-crowd hopes, and is 0-2 at Roland Garros. But he’s coming off the three best months of his career, in which he looked like a legitimate rival to Alcaraz. But Fils’ road could be rocky: He starts against Nicolas Jarry, and could play Andrey Rublev in the third round, and Sinner in the fourth.
• Lorenzo Musetti: As the No. 8 seed, Musetti may not qualify as a full-fledged, under-the-radar dark horse. But he’s also not someone who is part of the Slam-contender conversation yet. I’m not ready to put him there, exactly, but he does have a good draw. Musetti is the second-highest seed in a quarter led by non-dirtballer Taylor Fritz.
• Tommy Paul: The 28-year-old, who won the boys’ French Open title in 2015, may have the most clay-friendly game of the Americans. He showed that when he made the semis last week in Rome, but he has yet to get out of the third round at Roland Garros as an adult. His draw could send him up against Karen Khachanov in the third round, and Ruud in the fourth.

First-round matches to watch

• Jannik Sinner vs. Arthur Rinderknech
• Richard Gasquet vs. Terence Atmane With a win, Gasquet could face Sinner in his final tournament.
• Arthur Fils vs. Nicolas Jarry
• Hubert Hurkacz vs. Joao Fonseca
• Alexander Zverev vs. Learner Tien The American won their only previous match, on hard courts in Acapulco this year.
• Daniil Medvedev vs. Cam Norrie
• Novak Djokovic vs. Mackenzie McDonald
• Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego
• Carlos Alcaraz vs. Kei Nishikori