Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka: three-time defending champion meets her biggest rival and world No. 1

Before this past weekend, Swiatek-Sabalenka was in danger of becoming the great tennis rivalry that wasn’t.

They’ve been the two best players since 2022, but that’s also the last time they faced off at a major. As dominant as each has been during different sections of the season, they couldn’t put it all together at the same time at a Slam. Iga would win in Paris, Aryna would win in Melbourne and/or New York, and never their twains would meet. The way things were going as Roland Garros began, the drought didn’t look like it was going to end any time soon.

Swiatek, a four-time Roland Garros champion, had been the reigning Queen of Clay for most of this decade, but she appeared to have dethroned herself this spring. She failed to win any titles on dirt, or any titles at all through the first half of 2025. Instead of rounding into form as she approached Roland Garros, she had rounded farther and farther away from it. By the time Iga played in Rome three weeks ago, it felt like she was struggling to put two balls in a row into the court, and she wasn’t getting any closer to figuring out why. For the first time, Sabalenka, who has never reached a final in Paris, had replaced her as the favorite there.

As they say, though, there’s no place like home. And for a tennis player, there’s no place like a home away from home. That’s what Court Philippe Chatrier is for Swiatek. Even after all of her recent head-scratching defeats, when it came down to the nitty-gritty, to losing the title and the trophy that matter most, she found her game at the last possible moment on that court.

Down 6-1, 2-0 to Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, Swiatek took a full-cut rip at an important backhand, and it won her the point. She did the same on the next rally, and it won her another point. That was all she needed. From there, her topspin bombs finally stopped sailing over the lines, and started detonating in the corners again.

Swiatek says her history in Chatrier helps her self-belief.

“I feel like on this court and overall, like, Roland Garros, I should always push until the end and fight for everything, because there’s more probably that I overcome some stuff rather than in other places,” she says. “I just maybe believe it a little bit more.”

I feel like on this court and overall, like, Roland Garros, I should always push until the end and fight for everything, because there’s more probably that I overcome some stuff rather than in other places. I just maybe believe it a little bit more. Iga Swiatek

Sabalenka’s journey to the semis hasn’t been as dramatic, but it has probably been just what she wanted. She hasn’t dropped a set, yet she did get two useful tests in her last two matches, from hard-hitting players who have beaten her in the past. Amanda Anisimova pushed her to 7-5 in the first set in the fourth round, and Zheng Qinwen, who just beat Sabalenka in Rome, played well early and pushed her to a first-set tiebreaker. Both times, the top seed responded and reasserted control of the baseline.

“I expected her to play a great match,” Sabalenka said of Zheng. “I enjoyed this battle. I enjoyed that I had to come back in that first set, and the first set was, like, really tight. It could go either way.”

So who’s the favorite now? I’m going to see say it’s even at the moment. Swiatek leads their head-to-head 8-4, and is 5-1 on clay. Sabalenka won their most recent meeting, on hard courts in Cincinnati last summer, and has been the better player since. Sabalenka will be highly motivated to earn a chance at her first Roland Garros title, but Swiatek will likely be equally motivated to keep her crown, and redeem her game after her recent fall-off.

I love tough challenges. I think this is the matches where you actually improve as a player and where you get much stronger. I’m always excited to face someone strong and then someone who can challenge me. Aryna Sabalenka on facing Swiatek

This will also be their first meeting since Sabalenka engineered a thaw in their personal relationship—not that one seemed to exist—when she asked Swiatek to do a TikTok video with her last fall. They’ve been friendlier since. Will it make make any difference on Thursday? I doubt it. They’ll probably be happy to be rivals again.

“I love it,” Sabalenka says of getting a chance to Swiatek again at a Slam. “I love tough challenges. I think this is the matches where you actually improve as a player and where you get much stronger. I’m always excited to face someone strong and then someone who can challenge me.”

The two appear to be at even strength at the moment, but I’ll take the one who has been at her best all along this season. Winner: Sabalenka