Roland Garros men’s final preview: Can Alexander Zverev finally cross the Grand Slam finish line against Flavio Cobolli?

Roland Garros has had its share of surprise finalists in recent years: Lucie Safarova, Marketa Vondrousova, Anastasia Pavluchenkova, and 2024 runner-up Jasmine Paolini among others. Even Gauff’s first run to the title match, in 2022, was an eye-opener.

This year, though, with the glaring exception of Loïs Boisson’s bracket-buying performance, all went according to plan. Sabalenka, the top seed, beat four-time champ Iga Swiatek in the semis, and now she’ll face the No. 2 seed, Gauff, in the final. These two elites will vie for their first title at RG.

They both sound suitably pumped.

“I’m really excited to be back here in the final,” Gauff said after beating Boisson in the semis. “I’m going to savor this one and be ready on Saturday.”

“I’m ready to go in that final and to fight, fight for every point and give everything I have to give to get the win,” Sabalenka said after her victory over Swiatek.

Sabalenka and Gauff's head-to-head is tied at 5-5, but the top seed has won three of their last four matches—including their most recent encounter at the Mutua Madrid Open final last month.

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One thing they won’t have to contend with is an unknown opponent. Sabalenka and Gauff have played 10 times, and each has won five of those matches. Sabalenka won their most recent meeting, . But Gauff won their most important one, in the US Open final two years ago.

I’ve always been a little surprised that this matchup hasn’t been more one-sided in Sabalenka’s favor. She has a clear edge in power, and her strokes seem tailor-made to rush Gauff on her sometimes-shaky forehand side. But Gauff has been able to use Sabalenka’s pace against her, and, more important, make her hit more balls than she wants to hit. In that US Open final, she drove Sabalenka around the bend with her defense, to the point where she couldn’t put two balls in a row into the court. All she could do afterward was smash her racquet and stuff it in a garbage can.

Those meltdowns have become rarer, and a more emotionally resilient Sabalenka has won three of her last four over Coco. In Madrid, Gauff started slowly, and her serve was off. That’s obviously job one for Coco on Saturday: Keep the double faults at bay. According to her, her second job is to do more than play defense.

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“I think just trying to go for my shots and be aggressive,” Gauff said when she was asked how he hopes to play against Sabalenka. “Obviously she’s someone who has great big shots, and she’s going to come out aggressive, she’s going to come out swinging. I think I just have to expect that and do my best to kind of counter that.”

Sabalenka is the favorite—with caveats. Clay should, on balance, help Gauff get to more balls; the dirt in Paris is slower than in Madrid. Sabalenka could also suffer either (a) a letdown after dethroning Swiatek, or (b) jitters for her first RG final. Gauff should be relatively loose, having played a final here before, and being the underdog. Sabalenka has made herself much more consistent over the years, but she can still implode in big matches. She also tends to get flustered when another player takes the initiative. If Gauff can swing freely and surprise her with some strong early ground strokes from both sides, the way she did against Boisson, Sabalenka could get antsy.

All of that said, outside of Gauff’s serve, the match will be on Sabalenka’s racquet. It has been the best weapon in women’s tennis for a while now. I don’t think it ends up in the garbage this time. Winner: Sabalenka