Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev each show something in Acapulco, Dubai triumphs

WATCH: Daniil Medvedev won his third straight title this year with a win over Andrey Rublev in Dubai.

A year ago, Daniil Medvedev was No. 1 in the world. A month ago, he lost early at the Australian Open and dropped out of the Top 10. Now, with his title in Dubai on Saturday, he has won three straight tournaments and 14 straight matches. During that stretch, he has beaten Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Andrey Rublev, and Felix Auger-Aliassime twice. In his 6-2, 6-2 final-round win over Rublev in Dubai, he made zero backhand errors.

What’s the difference between a red-hot Medvedev, the man who never misses, and a Medvedev who goes winless at the ATP Finals, and can’t take a set from Sebastian Korda in Melbourne? According to the Russian, the distinction can be about something as small as which direction he chooses to hit a passing shot.

“There are some matches where you lose a match just because you were always hitting at the guy, and he was always choosing the right side,” Medvedev says. “You’re like, ‘How is it possible that not one time I can choose the right side?’

“Now I feel like a lot of points I can choose the right side to make a passing shot, I can hit some returns on the line to make the opponent play. That’s what confidence is. I know how it feels.”

Bombing serves, never missing, building rallies shot by shot, running everything down: This is the Medvedev that he, and we, have been waiting to see on a regular basis for the past year. In his wins over Djokovic and Rublev in Dubai, he seemed to be on top of every ball, and sure of every decision. By the second set of the final, his confidence had reached a point where it looked like he could put the ball anywhere he wanted, with any shot he wanted. Before Friday, Medvedev had lost four straight times to Djokovic, and two straight to Rublev; neither of them could muster a set against him in Dubai.

“He’s very patient, he’s very athletic; for his height, he moves well,” Djokovic said, sounding the way he sounded when he talked about Medvedev in 2019 and 2021. “Backhand is one of the most consistent shots that you have in today’s game.”

For Medvedev, it seems, the difference between brilliance and mediocrity is all about having a certain feeling. After the final, he said it was about having a feeling for which shot to hit. Earlier in the week, he said it was about knowing what winning feels like.

He said that even when the results weren’t there, over the past few months, he knew he had been hitting the ball well. Once he put a couple of good wins together in Rotterdam, that winning feeling returned, and he hasn’t lost it since.

“That was kind of the missing part—winning—because I was still playing good,” he says.

That winning feeling never lasts forever, even for a Top 5 guy like Medvedev. In the past, though, he has shown that he can ride it pretty far; in 2019 and 2021, he put together multiple-tournament win streaks. What matters as he heads for the first Masters 1000 of the year in Indian Wells is that Medvedev is back in the conversation. With Djokovic and Rafael Nadal out of the spring hard-court swing, and Carlos Alcaraz potentially struggling with an injury, the Russian will be at the top of the contender list in IW and Miami.

“I’m just happy to be on a streak right now. Streaks always finish. I’ll try to extend mine as long as I can.”

“Tommy Paul makes his case as the top U.S. male player.”

Those were the words that crossed my mind on Saturday night as the Acapulco final between Paul and Alex de Minaur reached 4-4 in the second set.

At the time, it sounded like the right headline for this post. The previous night, Paul had survived cramps to beat Taylor Fritz. In January, he had reached the semifinals at the Australian Open, and had cracked the Top 20 for the first time. Now he was in his first 500-level final, had won the first set over de Minaur handily, and had bounced back from a break down in the second set. Paul was the stronger player of the two, and he seemed to be on the verge of making a strong statement.

Then he lost eight of the next nine games, and the match, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

So instead of Paul, it was de Minaur who ended up making the strong statement this week. The 24-year-old Australian had won six 250-level titles, but this was his first 500. He did it by coming back from a set down to beat Holger Rune in the semifinals, and Paul in the final. With the victory, de Minaur moves up to No. 18, three spots off his career high.

De Minaur won the way he always wins. By not caving mentally. By lengthening the rallies and turning the match into a physical scarp. By forcing Paul, who was playing in just his second final, to hit as many balls as possible. By using his underrated serve as a bailout weapon; de Minaur won 81% of his first-serve points. Those big serves helped him save five break points in the crucial opening game of the third set.

“Just to kind of stay in the match, especially in the second set; I just dug deep, managed to scrap my way through it,” de Minaur said.

“Like everything in my career, it’s been step by step,” he said. “I just want to keep pushing, keep getting the most out of myself. I know I might not play unbelievable tennis every day, but I know I’m going to fight to the end.

“I’ve got a whole lot of heart in this little body of mine.”