Amanda Anisimova vs. Iga Swiatek: Wimbledon Final Betting Preview

Amanda Anisimova has played some of the best tennis of her life over the last two weeks, and her semifinal win over Aryna Sabalenka was her masterpiece. She controlled large portions of that match with beautiful ball striking, and she capped it all off by blocking out some of the negative thoughts that have plagued her throughout her career. For Anisimova, Wimbledon has served as a two-week showcase for her aggressive quick-strike game from the baseline, but also her improved mental toughness.

Unfortunately for her, that might not be enough for her to beat a red-hot Iga Swiatek.

Swiatek has looked like a completely different person in London. The five-time Grand Slam champion has always been dominant on clay, but she has had her struggles on quicker surfaces. She has also had problems beating some of the sports' free-swinging baseliners—it's why Jelena Ostapenko has had her number. But Swiatek rocked Danielle Collins, Clara Tauson and Liudmila Samsonova before getting to the semifinals. That showed some real growth for the Pole. Then, Swiatek absolutely pummeled Belinda Bencic in the semis, 6-2, 6-0.

Swiatek’s ball striking and serving have been extremely precise for two weeks, and I don’t see her suddenly faltering against Anisimova. She’s a better server and returner than the American, and she’s also a much better mover.

I also think the groundstrokes favor Swiatek. The Pole’s forehand might not be as big when flattened out, but she dictates play with it a little better, especially with her topspin and depth. Swiatek's backhand also matches up, which is impressive considering Anisimova’s backhand is one of her biggest advantages over everybody else.

This is also a match in which Swiatek should be a little more prepared mentally. There’s definitely going to be some more pressure on the Pole, who is 5-0 in major finals. Normally expect very little from her on grass, but now that she’s one win away from claiming another major, there’s going to be a lot on her shoulders. However, I think Swiatek will do a better job of managing those expectations than Anisimova, who has never played in a Grand Slam final before.

Considering all of that, I’d play Swiatek to cover a 2.5-game spread in this match. I’d also look into sprinkling a little something on a prop for Swiatek to win a set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2. Those aren’t always available, but some shops will post them. Swiatek has had eight of those sets in this tournament already.

However, I will note that anybody that tailed my Swiatek +800 tournament outright before the event should be looking to hedge. While I think Swiatek will take care of business, putting two units on Anisimova at around +185 odds is the right thing to do. You’ll still win 6 units if the Pole wins, but you’ll also get a little something if it goes the American’s way.

Pick: Swiatek -2.5 Games (-145)