For years we've heard doomsday prophecies about American tennis. Not enough kids are playing. Our player development system needs an overhaul. All the good athletes play baseball, basketball, football and soccer. Tennis is too expensive and takes too much time to learn.
All those things remain true, or at least true to some extent, and tennis is indeed in a crisis in this country. Yet the story of 17-year-old Melanie Oudin, who scored the largest upset of the U.S. Open so far on Thursday by defeating the fourth-ranked Elena Dementieva, reminds us how easily talent can deceive. It's difficult to identify, and once found, even more difficult to assess accurately. What makes someone great at tennis? The necessary traits—powerful strokes, speed, mental toughness—sound simple enough to spot, but somehow are not. And then one must ask, how much of each does a prospect need? How should our prospect nurture this talent? What's the role of timing and luck, if any? Even among the very best juniors in the world, seemingly obvious talent can be an illusion. Tommy Ho, the fabulous junior who won every tournament there was to win but barely cracked the Top 100 in a brief professional career, is proof. So is Pete Sampras (he was considered an interesting prospect, but not much more).
A few years ago—in fact, as recently as last year—Oudin was rightfully seen as a minor talent. She was feisty but undersized, competitive and hard working, but not naturally powerful and imposing. As a junior, she rose to No. 2 in the rankings, but there was a big distance between her and the seemingly more talented Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who owned the junior circuit.
Suddenly, Oudin seems to have far more potential than Pavlyuchenkova (whom Oudin pummeled in the first round) and a chance at a long and prosperous career. So, how did we miss her? And by "we," I don't just mean the journalists and tennis commentators (including yours truly) who have hardly mentioned her name these past two years. The top scouts in our country weren't expecting this from Oudin, either, never mind this soon. Other young women were seen as far more likely to succeed. (Coco Vandeweghe, last year's U.S. Open junior champion, is but one example; she lost in the first round of qualifying this year.)
Oudin's game is easy to love. It starts with her feet, which are reminiscent of those of her idol, Justine Henin. Oudin is always on her toes and in motion, and never takes long strides. She's also fast and smart about her movement: She takes the shortest path to the ball and cuts off angles by hitting shots on the rise. Her strokes are short, easy, clean, smooth, and, best of all, identical every time. Only the Williams sisters hit the ball harder than Dementieva, yet it was Oudin who spent more time close to the baseline and Dementieva who kept retreating and scurrying and throwing up defensive shots.
Most women on the pro tour have a more reliable backhand than forehand, a product of the two-handedness that now dominates that stroke (it's easier to control the racquet with two hands). Oudin's two-hander is strong and steady, but she prefers to hit forehands and hits them with an uncommon ease. Her stroke is short and has no hitches; its only weakness is its limited topspin. She slices her backhand beautifully and has a decent drop shot, too. She plays concisely and clearly and never seems confused, and she's full of positive energy and fist pumps, too. Her serve needs work, but she has at least mastered an important element: a consistent ball toss (for an example of the opposite, see: Ivanovic, Ana).
Oudin's size isn't much of a concern. After all, size and athleticism are not one and the same. Oudin is 5-foot-6 and 130 pounds, but she's an athlete. She's trim and fit and her biceps bulge; she has a great first step and fine balance.
What do I like best about her? She seems to thrive on the biggest stages and against the best players. At Wimbledon, she defeated Jelena Jankovic and reached the fourth round. Thursday, in her first match inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, Oudin beat the woman who was considered the second favorite, after Serena Williams, to win this tournament, and did it after losing the first set.
Want more evidence of Oudin’s nerve and ambition? Consider what she said about Henin: "You don't have to be six-foot-something to be No. 1 in the world." All these years Melanie Oudin has been aiming for something big, and somehow no one noticed. That's talent.
Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at TENNIS. Follow him on Twitter.