And Then There Were Four

Who says the season is too long? In the past, November has brought us stories about how the players are “limping to the finish line.” The opposite has been the case this year. Novak Djokovic has been as dominant as ever through the fall, and three of his fellow members of the ATP’s upper echelon—Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, and Rafael Nadal—have followed his lead by joining him in the semifinals at the tour's season-ending championships in London. In case you were wondering, the best are still the best. Let’s see what might happen when they face each other on Saturday.

Is this the moment when, after 10 years of chasing Nadal, Djokovic finally catches up? Rafa currently leads their head to head 23-22, but he’s hanging on by a thread. After losing 14 of their first 18 meetings, Djokovic has won seven of the last eight, including all three in 2015. The last time they played, in the Beijing final on an indoor hard court, Djokovic won by the highly convincing scores of 6-2, 6-2.

Does Nadal stand any chance of turning that around? Judging by the way he walked off the court on Friday, the answer would seem to be no. Nadal lost the first set of a mostly meaningless round-robin match to David Ferrer, but rather than going away quickly and quietly and saving his energy for the semis, Nadal bore down and gritted his way through a tough three-setter in two hours and 37 minutes—call it Rafa being Rafa. All you can do is tip your hat to both Spaniards for giving the paying customers at the O2 Arena something to see.

Tip your hat, that is, and hope that Nadal has something left against Djokovic. Before Friday, this did seem like an opportunity for Rafa to make some inroads against the world No. 1. Djokovic played perhaps his worst match of 2015 to lose to Federer on Tuesday, and he wasn't razor sharp in his win over Tomas Berdych on Thursday, either. Nadal will turn the tables again at some point and make this a real rivalry again, but not this time. Winner: Djokovic

Wawrinka is making his third trip to the semis in London in three tries, but this one is something of a surprise. Based on his half-hearted effort against Nadal on Monday, Stan looked like he was ready to start the off-season ASAP. But like Kei Nishikori after his own opening-day debacle against Djokovic, Wawrinka made sure there wasn't a repeat of that performance. He gathered himself to beat Ferrer on Wednesday, and by the middle of the second set against Murray on Friday, Wawrinka was firing on all cylinders. Only a late surge from the Scot made it close.

It’s tempting to think that Wawrinka will keep his momentum going and power past Federer on Saturday. As he shows us every few months, when Stan gets on a roll, it can be impossible for anyone to stop him. He also held match points on Federer here last year. But the percentages are all with the older man. Federer leads their head-to-head 17-3, he won their last meeting easily, in the U.S. Open semifinals, and he is 3-0 this week. Is the fact that Federer struggled twice to close Nishikori out from 4-1 up on Thursday a sign of vulnerability? Possibly, but I have my doubts that if Wawrinka gets down, he’ll be able to get back up. Winner: Federer