Are the tennis tours hitting the Fall wall?

As watershed tennis events go, the recent Korea Open in Seoul become the first WTA 500 tournament on the Asian peninsula, leveling up from a 250. The event also produced another historic first when eight players, including world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and No. 3 Jessica Pegula, withdrew for an assortment of reasons.

Welcome to post-US Open tennis.

The following week, another parade of stars—nine, this time, led by the ailing Elina Svitolina and Emma Raducanu—walked away from the top-tier China Open. Draws were more stable on the ATP side of the fence, yet Carlos Alcaraz generated headlines recently when he complained about the length of the season.

“There is a lot of tournaments during the year, mandatory tournaments, and probably during the next few years gonna be even more,” remarked the 21-year-old. “So, I mean, probably they are going to kill us in some way."

Complaints by the pros about the toll exacted by tennis’ roughly 11-month grind are an annual ritual, but the range of reasons for withdrawals (injury, mental health, fatigue) has become so broad that it may be approaching critical mass. Let’s look at the big picture.

Why hasn’t this issue gone away?

The game is becoming more punishing almost by the day (more on that later), yet the ranking system is designed to push and reward players for taking part in the greatest number of events, including a hefty list of mandatory ones. Those demands have also become more onerous over time.

An individual’s ranking is based on his or her best singles performances—updated recently to 18 for WTA, 19 for ATP. Jannik Sinner has played just 18 tournaments over the past 12 months, good enough for him to keep his No. 1 ranking given his performance. By contrast, Lorenzo Musetti has logged 30 to secure No. 18 status, while ATP No. 93 Federico Coria played in a whopping 33 tournaments in this interval, the most among the Top 100. On top of that, mandatory events on both tours force players into rigid schedules that may create significant health or fitness issues (look under “R” for “Rybakina.”)

Probably they are going to kill us in some way. Carlos Alcaraz on the tennis schedule, speaking at the Laver Cup.

Evidence of a game in trouble

Various entities, including the Professional Tennis Players Association (founded in 2020 by Novak Djokovic and fellow pro Vasek Pospisil) have been taking a close look at different facets of the game, based on withdrawals and retirements.

In a comprehensive, peer-reviewed study published by the National Library of Medicine (Retirements of professional tennis players in second- and third-tier tournaments on the ATP and WTA tours), researchers looked at almost three-quarters of a million matches in the ATP and WTA databases, ranging from 1978-2019 (ATP) and 1994–2018 (WTA)—all the Challenger, WTA 125 and ITF events that provide pathways to the main tour for future stars.

The analysis found that retirement rates in second and third-tier events “reveal(ed) a notable trend in the increasing incidence of retirements, particularly noticeable from around the end of the 90s, especially in the ATP tournaments.” The overall rate of retirement was 1.56 (ATP) and 1.36 (WTA) per 1000 games. In addition to the rates rising, they rose more significantly on hard courts and, for women, in later rounds of play. Sinner is just 23 years old and Alcaraz a mere 21, but both have already missed significant time due to injury or illness.

The PTPA has collected data confirming, among other things, that WTA players withdrew from tournaments 119 times in 2023, for reasons ranging from injuries (134) to “personal” (just one) and “undisclosed” (34). The top four injuries on both tours are, in order: illness, back, knee and shoulder. The top three injuries had a similar number of incidences, but shoulder injuries were significantly higher among women (57 examples, or 7.2% of total) than men (41, 4.18%).

Dr. Robby Sikka, the PTPA’s medical director, is overseeing the outfit’s major push, utilizing tech and data mining, to provide the players with personalized medical support on a consistent basis, which includes access to regular care and data assembled by the PTPA’s team. One day, Sikka predicted, players will be able to host and tote their entire personal medical record on their smartphones.

A game transformed

It may seem self-evident to diehard fans, but consider the words of the authors of the NLM study, who wrote:

“Tennis has evolved from a technical, tactical discipline based on style and finesse and played with wooden rackets, to the current fast paced, explosive sport based on power, strength, and speed, and played with lighter, stronger and bigger rackets. During the last decades there has been a tendency of an increased ball speed and taller players with professional players able to generate higher amounts of power behind their shots.”

Those words are borne out by some of the statistics and data presented to the players before the most recent US Open by the PTPA. Taken together, the details add up to the profile of a merciless, often brutal game.

The workload (miles run) has increased dramatically from 2015, from 1.09 miles per match to 1.75. At the majors, the average match time has increased by 20 percent since 1999. Thus, playing three sets today is like having played four in earlier years, and five sets translate to six-plus. A higher percentage of injuries occurs in matches when the players’ previous match lasted 122 minutes or more.

The number of night matches at Grand Slams has increased by 100% since 2018, and, according to the PTPA, those matches have a 25% higher injury rate than day matches.

“Soon, I think there are going to be conversations about what is a safe match length, and what is a safe time to play until,” Sikka told me in a recent interview. “Those are [theoretically] easy things for us to improve. But we also need to understand other things, like the long-term risks to players, from the changing velocity and changing power requirements to play on the tour.”

Significant disparity in the quality, weight and features of balls used in tournaments from one week to the next emerged as a contentious, injury-linked issue last year. Easily solved, you might think, if the tours adopted an official, sanctioned ball for each tour segment: hard courts, clay, grass. The problem is, tournaments are free to negotiate a deal with any manufacturer they choose. Besides, Sikka said, evidence suggests that “spin rate” and “velocity” may have as much or more to do than balls with shoulder, wrist and arm injuries.

The danger lurking under the roof

The tours recently took some small steps to ease the pressure on the pros, putting limits on the number of matches played daily on each court and, except for special circumstances, ruling out starts after 11 PM.

“Match scheduling and tennis balls are both priority topics on our agenda, together with the WTA,” ATP Chairman Andrea Gaudenzi said when the rules were announced. “It’s imperative that we evolve and adapt to the demands of the modern game.”

That’s for the tours, though. The Grand Slam events are independent and make their own rules. Those much-loved roofed stadia at the majors get a major PR dividend from battles lasting into the pre-dawn hours, but the all-nighters also pose a serious threat to the health and well-being of the participants.

“We love the romantic aspects of playing at 2:00 AM in New York, but we shouldn't,” Sikka told me. “It's a detriment to the players, to the fans, to everybody. And the quality of tennis is worse as a result.” He added that the PTPA wants to advocate for global change that allows the player's schedule to be more in tune with the modern game.

“There has to be a respect for how many tournaments is the appropriate number for a player before it's like, ‘Hey, you're doing yourself harm over the long haul,’” he added.

The elephant in the room

The rank-and-file of the ATP rebelled and took control of the game following the storied “parking lot press conference” at the US Open in 1988. The player organization swiftly went into partnership with the tournaments and ITF to rebuild the tour from the ground up. At the time, the legendary, independent thinker and tournament promoter Ion Tiriac told me, “There is ATP Tour now, yes, but there is no more the ATP organization for the players.”

Those words were prescient. That’s where the PTPA comes in, as the closest thing to the original ATP. Or to a players’ union in a sport that, under federal labor laws, cannot have a union (the players are not considered tour employees, but independent contractors who have a monopoly on the job market).

Until the players have a stronger voice and choose to exercise it, significant change is unlikely to occur. It’s hard to imagine the other stakeholders (ATP/WTA, tournaments etc.) choosing to risk a drop in business as a result of scaling back. So the show goes on. Within the last two weeks, the WTA has produced the two longest matches since 2011—both of them lasting for over four hours.

Let that stand as a warning sign.