Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova: an all-powerful US Open final for all the marbles

Hopefully, before they turned their eyes and their minds toward Saturday’s final, Aryna Sabalenka and Amanda Anisimova took a few minutes to savor their semifinal successes.

Both came back from a set down to win. Both survived an exceptionally determined opponent who didn’t give them an inch. Sabalenka beat an energized Jessica Pegula 6-4 in the third. Anisimova beat Naomi Osaka, a player who was 8-0 in Grand Slam semifinals and finals, 6-3 in the third. Over the years, Sabalenka has lost more than her share of late-round heartbreakers at Slams, especially against home crowd favorites like Pegula. Anisimova, meanwhile, has historically struggled to control her nerves. Each has also experienced a disastrous loss in a Slam final this year: Sabalenka to Coco Gauff in Paris, 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-4; Anisinova to Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon, 6-0, 6-0.

This time neither of them blinked, or wilted in the spotlight.

“I think I handled that pressure really well,” Sabalenka said. “I’m super proud of this win.”

“I tried to dig deep and find my game,” Anisimova said. “I feel like throughout the match I was able to find it more and more, and the most important thing was that I kept fighting.”

With their victories, Sabalenka and Anisimova will turn the US Open final into a personal 2025 rubber match. At Roland Garros, they met in the fourth round; Sabalenka won 7-5, 6-3. At Wimbledon, they met in the semifinals; Anisimova won 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in one of the best matches of the year.

Anisimova’s Wimbledon win ran her record against the world No. 1 to 6-3. From their first meeting, at the Australian Open six years ago, the New Jersey native has thrived against Sabalenka. Against most opponents, Sabalenka’s heavy ground strokes will handcuff them, push them back, bounce up out of their strike zones. Against the 5’11” Anisimova, they just feed into her own, equally powerful strokes, and come back flatter and harder.

The rallies will be fast-paced and, if their back-and-forth Wimbledon semi is any indication, they’ll trade control of those rallies every few games.

“We’ve had very, very tough matches,” Anisimova says. “A lot of them have actually been at Grand Slams, too. But I think the standout one was probably Wimbledon. It was really a seesaw match, which is almost always the case when I play her.”

Anisimova hit 50 winners against Osaka on Thursday night; Sabalenka hit 43 against Pegula. From a shot-making perspective, either player can win. So what will make the difference?

Sabalenka says she’ll try to be more decisive than she was at Wimbledon.

“I think I have to trust myself, and I have to go after my shots,” she says. “I felt like in that match at Wimby, I was doubting a lot my decisions, and that was the main thing that was bringing a lot of unforced errors.”

Anisimova says she’ll try to continue to play with the newly assertive spirit that she’s had since her loss to Swiatek.

“I think I have really worked on myself to really be able to handle those moments and to believe in myself, even when it feels like…you’re not playing that well,” she says. “I think I have really done a better job of that, and especially since the Wimbledon final. I think I have really shifted with my attitude.”

Can Sabalenka ignore the crowd? Can Anisimova forget the Wimbledon final?

Each will be dealing with a particular mental challenge.

Sabalenka will once again face a crowd that wants her opponent to win. She hasn’t dealt well with that—to put it mildly—against Gauff in a couple of Slam finals. Staying calm and in her bubble if things start to go south will be key for her.

For Anisimova, the challenge may be believing that she can go all the way and win a Slam. The idea is fairly new to her; she says she has always just wanted to win tournaments, and didn’t really dream of majors. So far at the Open, she has kept her belief intact against Swiatek and Osaka. But it may be harder to do if she gets a lead, and the chance to actually win the US Open suddenly pops up on her mental horizon.

One of these women will conquer her nerves and doubts and irritations, and the other won’t. In that regard, I’d say it could go either way. So I’ll take the woman who is the better player most of the time. She has to show us why she’s No. 1 at some point this season, doesn’t she? Winner: Sabalenka