Generational Rivalry: Jannik Sinner wins first 2026 clash with Carlos Alcaraz in Monte Carlo for biggest career clay title

While Jannik Sinner has the ATP No. 1 ranking locked in no matter what happens at the Australian Open this year, there are three women who can leave Melbourne with the WTA No. 1 ranking—the current Top 3 of Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff.

Here’s how each of them can clinch it:

Aryna Sabalenka

Though she has a hefty 1,536-point lead over Swiatek on the current WTA rankings (9,656 to 8,120), Sabalenka is defending 1,870 more points than Swiatek at the Australian Open. She earned 2,000 points for winning the title last year, while Swiatek only earned 130 for falling in the third round.

That means Sabalenka has a 334-point gap to make up, and so she needs to not only do better than Swiatek over the next two weeks, but in some cases a few rounds better.

Sabalenka needs to at least reach the quarterfinals to hang onto No. 1, period. If Swiatek reaches the third round, Sabalenka needs to reach the semifinals. If Swiatek reaches the semifinals, Sabalenka needs to reach the final. And if Swiatek reaches the final, Sabalenka needs to beat her in that final.

There’s also the Gauff factor, which we’ll cover below.

Between them, Swiatek and Sabalenka have held the No. 1 ranking every week since April of 2022.

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Iga Swiatek

As mentioned above, Swiatek is actually the frontrunner to leave Australia at No. 1. She could even lose in the first round and still potentially return to the top spot as long as Sabalenka doesn’t reach the quarterfinals and Gauff doesn’t win the title.

But more realistically, Swiatek could first eliminate Gauff from the running just by reaching the third round. If Swiatek finishes in the third round, fourth round or quarterfinals, she would clinch a return to No. 1 as long as Sabalenka doesn’t reach the semifinals. If Swiatek reaches the semifinals, she would get it as long as Sabalenka doesn’t reach the final. And if Swiatek reaches the final, she would get it as long as Sabalenka doesn’t win the title.

A title for either Sabalenka or Swiatek would guarantee No. 1.

Gauff is trying to become the first American, male or female, to reach No. 1 since Serena Williams in 2017.

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Coco Gauff

Gauff has the toughest path to No. 1, but it’s not out of reach.

First of all, she needs to win the title—not a stretch, given that she’s 18-2 since the US Open, capturing two of the biggest titles on the tour since then at Beijing and the WTA Finals, as well as leading Team USA to the United Cup title last week.

But then, the longshot part: she would not only need Sabalenka to lose before the semifinals, which is dubious given her success here, but she would need Swiatek to lose before the third round, something she hasn’t done at any major so far this decade.

Stay tuned to TENNIS.com during the Australian Open for all the updates on the No. 1 race.

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