Aryna Sabalenka returns for Madrid title defense—can Elena Rybakina dethrone her?

The Mutua Madrid Open women’s draw is out and Elena Rybakina’s rise to world No. 2 means she and top seed Aryna Sabalenka are on a collision course for yet another big final in 2026.

Rybakina and Sabalenka have already faced off twice on hard courts, with Rybakina winning the Australian Open and Sabalenka saving a match point to capture the BNP Paribas Open. Sabalenka continued her momentum against Rybakina at the Miami Open, but while she sat out the first red-clay tournament of the season Rybakina cruised to the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix title.

Sabalenka is the defending champion at the Caja Magica, where she has won three times in total—and every odd year since 2021. Looking to go back-to-back in Madrid for the first time, she will face tough opposition from the first match as she opens against either American Peyton Stearns or 2025 Roland Garros semifinalist Loïs Boisson. Her projected fourth-round opposition is either former world No. 1 Naomi Osaka or No. 23 Marie Bouzkova, who won a clay-court title earlier this month in Bogota.

No. 4 seed Iga Swiatek anchors the top half of the draw alongside Sabalenka, and the 2024 Madrid champion is looking to kickstart her clay campaign after suffering a shock loss to Mirra Andreeva last week in Stuttgart. Swiatek is playing just her second tournament since hiring new coach Francisco Roig and, like Sabalenka, could face a former Roland Garros semifinalist in her first match in Daria Kasatkina.

Swiatek’s projected fourth-round opponent could be an in-form Leylah Fernandez or rising American star Iva Jovic. She could face a rematch with Andreeva in the quarterfinals, but she could also take on No. 7 seed Elina Svitolina, who defeated the Pole at the BNP Paribas Open last month.

Elena Rybakina’s half of the draw is no less stacked. Opeing against either Elena-Gabriela Ruse or Antonia Ruzic, her projected road to a first Madrid final could include former world No. 4 Zheng Qinwen, who pushed her to three sets at the Qatar TotalEnergies Open in February, an always dangerous Jelena Ostapenko, and former Australian Open champion Madison Keys.

A trio of Top 8-seeded Americans also landed in the bottom half: No. 6 seed Amanda Anisimova is Elena Rybakina’s projected quarterfinal opponent, while No. 3 seed Coco Gauff shares a quarter with No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula, who won the Credit One Charleston Open on green clay at the start of the month.

Anisimova’s first match will be against either Dayana Yastremska or Solana Sierra, Gauff will open against either a qualifier or Oksana Selekhmeteva, and Pegula will kick off her Caja Magica campaign against either Taylor Townsend or Katie Boulter.

Click here to check out the full Madrid Open women’s draw.