Hailey Baptiste, facing six match points, made Aryna Sabalenka play each one in stirring Madrid comeback

Aryna Sabalenka’s near-perfect 2025 season continues as she extends her lead atop the WTA rankings with a third straight run to the Mutua Madrid Open final. Aside from a near-miss in the finals of the Australian Open and subsequent Middle East hangover, the top seed has been the most dominant force in the women’s game since last summer, when she captured her third major title at the 2024 US Open.

Standing between the world No. 1 and her second WTA 1000 title of the season is on-again, off-again rival Coco Gauff, who is in the midst of another undisputed upswing after an emphatic week at the Caja Magica. After a slow start in her opening round, the 2023 US Open champion has been on fire, culminating with a 6-1, 6-1 drubbing of defending champion Iga Swiatek.

Gauff leads Sabalenka 5-4 in their head-to-head, splitting their two 2024 meetings in Wuhan and the WTA Finals—the American winning the latter last fall in Riyadh.

“Obviously Aryna is world No. 1, so it would be cool to play her in the final and give myself that challenge,” Gauff said in her post-match press conference, hoping to become the third woman this season to beat both Gauff and Sabalenka in back-to-back matches.

Sabalenka has been efficient throughout the week in Madrid, winning in straight sets in all but one of her matches, and raised her level when she had to against both Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina in the last two rounds. In a match that will likely come down to the margins, Sabalenka’s extra power should give her the edge in these high-altitude conditions. Winner: Sabalenka—David Kane

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Betting Odds

Sabalenka is a -155 moneyline favorite; Gauff is a +120 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 9:53 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 1)

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