At the 2026 Madrid Open, is it Sinner—and Sabalenka—take all?

Last month we watched the Sunshine Double. On Tuesday we begin the…what should we call it? The Dirty Double? The Clay-Thousand? The Euro Slide?

However we want to say it, the tours will spend the next month at the recently expanded clay 1000s in Madrid and Rome.

With the Madrid draws made, here are six things to watch for as the players take over the Caja Magica for the next two weeks.

Jannik Sinner’s bad luck in Madrid might be about to change

Carlos Alcaraz has a wrist injury. Novak Djokovic has a shoulder injury. That means the No. 2, 3, and 4 seeds are Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger Aliassime, and Ben Shelton, respectively. Combined, Sinner has won his last 22 meetings with those three opponents. The last time he lost to any of them was 2023.

👉Read More: Madrid Open Men's Draw

In theory, Sinner should love Madrid, no matter who he faces. The clay there isn’t much different from the hard courts where he thrives. But success has eluded him in the Magic Box. He has made the quarterfinals just once, and last season he didn’t play due to a doping suspension.

Is this the year when all of that changes? It should be. He’s on 17-match win streak, and has won the last four Masters 1000s dating back to late 2025. He just won his first significant clay title, in Monte Carlo. And every victory in Madrid will add to his lead over Alcaraz for the No. 1 ranking.

Sinner’s path to the semifinals might look like this: Qualifier/Gabriel Diallo/Tommy Paul/Alex De Minaur.

He’s a combined 18-1 against Diallo, Paul, and De Minaur.

Aryna Sabalenka, finally a Roland Garros favorite, will try to carry her hard-court momentum to clay

The last time we saw Sabalenka, she was completing a rare Sunshine Double. With her win over Elena Rybakina in the Indian Wells final, and her win over Coco Gauff in the Miami final, she reasserted her status as the clear WTA No. 1, and as a player who could hold her nerve in title matches.

👉Read more: Madrid Open Women's Draw

Now she’ll return to one of her favorite courts. She’s a three-time champion in Madrid; in 2023, she beat one of her rivals, Iga Swiatek, in the final, and last year she beat another in Gauff. For the first time, Sabalenka arrives for the clay season as a solid favorite to win her first title at Roland Garros. Can she stay that way in Madrid?

Her path to the semifinals looks like this: Stearns or Boisson/Cristian/Osaka/Paolini or Bencic

The name that sticks out there is Osaka’s. Sabalenka beat her in a competitive two-setter in Indian Wells last month.

Has Elena Rybakina passed Swiatek and Gauff as the biggest threat to Sabalenka on dirt?

Rybakina’s win in Stuttgart this past week had the quality of a statement.

A big-serving champion at Wimbledon and the Australian Open, she’s never been known as a clay-courter. But Stuttgart was her fifth title on the surface, and to win it she beat two Roland Garros contenders, Mirra Andreeva and Karolina Muchova, in convincing fashion. When it was over, she was No. 1 in the WTA’s 2026 Race to Riyadh

Is she ready to make an even bigger statement? Rybakina liked the quick conditions in Stuttgart, so she’ll be comfortable with them in Madrid as well, right? Much like Sinner, she has been surprisingly unsuccessful at this event. She’s 8-5, and has made just one semi in five tries.

To change that history, she’ll have to earn it. The seeds in Rybakina’s quarter include Zheng Qinwen, Amanda Anisimova, Madison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko, Maria Sakkari, and Elise Mertens.

How about Iga and Coco? We can’t count the defending Roland Garros and Wimbledon champions out quite yet. Swiatek has a new coach in Francisco Roig, and Gauff made the final in Miami last month.

Swiatek is in Sabalenka’s half, and her path looks like this: Kasatkina/Ann Li/Jovic/Andreeva or Svitolina in the quarters

Gauff is in Rybakina’s half, and her path looks like this: Qualifier/Cirstea/Noskova/Pegula or Mboko in the quarters

Can the ATP’s newest Next Gen take advantage of a fairly open draw?

No Alcaraz or Djokovic should be music to the ears of the rest of the ATP field. It may also help give the tour’s fresh faces of spring a bigger stage.

Rafael Jodar, 19, just made the semis in Barcelona. Alexander Blockx, 21, reached the round of 16 in Monte Carlo. And Martin Landaluce, 20, made the quarters in Miami. Jodar and Landaluce will also be the toast of the town; they grew up and trained together in Madrid.

Jodar starts against Jesper de Jong, and would be play De Minaur in the second round

Blockx plays Botic Van de Zandschulp; the winners gets Brandon Nakashima

Landaluce starts against Adam Walton; the winner faces Karen Khachanov

Even if he has been around for a few years, no list of future ATP stars would be complete without Arthur Fils right now. The 21-year-old Frenchman has made a meteoric return from a back injury, capping it with a 500-level title last week in Barcelona. Fils has landed in Sinner’s half in Madrid, and in a quarter led by Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti. If he’s physically ready, he could be a title threat.

What are the potential early-round matches to watch?

Women’s

Osaka vs. Camila Osorio (2nd round): They’ve split two matches in Indian Wells the last two years

Iva Jovic vs. Leylah Fernandez (3rd round): Fernandez had two match points against Rybakina in the Stuttgart quarters

Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk (3rd round): Pegula just won in Charleston; Kostyuk just won in Rouen

Mboko vs. Clara Tauson (3rd round)

Anisimova vs. Dayana Yastremska (2nd round)

Rybakina vs. Zheng (3rd round)

Men’s

Jodar vs. De Jong

Arthur Fils vs. Valentin Vacherot (3rd round): The winner between these two in-form French products could play Shelton in the fourth round. If Fils keeps his Barcelona momentum alive, he might see Sinner in the semis.

Alexander Bublik vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (2nd round)

Blockx vs. Van de Zandschulp

Flavio Cobolli vs. Gael Monfils (2nd round)

Landaluce vs. Khachanov (2nd round)

Who will win?

Men’s

Semifinals: Sinner d. Fils; Zverev d. Auger Aliassime

Final: Sinner d. Zverev

Women’s

Semifinals: Sabalenka d. Andreeva; Rybakina d. Pegula

Final: Rybakina d. Sabalenka