ATP Burning Question No. 4: What Does Federer Need to do to Win in Australia?

Over the next two weeks, as the new season begins and the Australian Open nears, our panel of writers and editors will debate the five burning questions on each tour.

STEVE TIGNOR, Senior Writer: Each year since 2010, Federer has come to Melbourne fresh, lifted his fans’ hopes with some vintage early-round play—“It’s like 2006 all over again,” they gush—and then fallen back down to earth in the semis against either Rafael Nadal (2012, 2014), Novak Djokovic (2011), or Andy Murray (2013). For Federer to win his fifth title, he needs to do what he almost always does—get himself to the semis—and hope that someone else knocks Nadal off before he has to face him. Rafa has won their last five matches while losing just one set. If Rafa loses, Roger becomes the co-favorite with Djokovic.

ED MCGROGAN, Senior Editor: If you were told that Federer would play a fifth set in the Wimbledon final and could beat Cilic and Nishikori for a US Open title in 2014, how many Slams would you have pegged him to win: One or two? But Federer failed to capture either major during a year in which a lot went right for him. His opponents played great, but in both cases, Federer didn’t play at his best when he had to. As strange as it is to say, the 17-time Slam champ must learn to deal with the pressure if he’s to win it all.

PETER BODO, Senior Writer: First of all, he needs to do all he can to mitigate whatever lingering effects or vulnerabilities remain following the back injury he suffered at the end of 2014. If Melbourne’s notoriously hot conditions loom as a factor, Federer must avoid getting into long, tiring matches during the first week. One significant and recently added tactic will help his quest and conserve energy: A willingness to move forward and end points quickly.

NINA PANTIC, Associate Editor: Build a time machine. It might seem dramatic, but despite his second-place finish at Wimbledon, time is not in Federer’s favor. Every passing year is making it harder for him to stave off the effects of age—particularly his back, which will continue to be a question mark. There’s no doubt he’s still a contender to go deep into the second week, but getting past an in-form Djokovic or a returning Nadal, on top of two long weeks playing best-of-five-set matches, is likely asking too much. Everyone knows the wrinkles of time can’t truly be stopped.

Tuesday, January 6: Is Grigor Dimitrov for real?
Thursday, January 8: Will this be the second straight year we'll see a first-time Slam winner at the Australian Open?
Monday, January 12: Have we reached the end of the Big 4 era?
Friday, January 16: What constitutes success for U.S. tennis in Melbourne?