ATP Finals: Alcaraz vs. Fritz & Musetti vs. de Minaur | Previews, Picks, Where to Watch

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz

🤜 Head to Head: Alcaraz leads 4-1 (2-1 in 2025)*

• *Two of their five career matches were at Laver Cups
• Alcaraz d. Fritz 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6 (6)—Wimbledon semifinal
• Fritz d. Alcaraz 6-3, 6-2—Laver Cup round robin
• Alcaraz d. Fritz 6-4, 6-4—Tokyo final

The Preview: This is the most intriguing of the Connors Group matches, because (a) these are the two favorites to make the semifinals, and (b) both players come in with specific motivations for doing well.

The paramount motivation for Alcaraz is that he needs three wins in Turin to clinch his second year-end No. 1 crown. He got one, against Alex de Minaur, on Sunday. Beating Fritz will put him on the brink, and he’ll be heavily favored to win his third match. against Lorenzo Musetti.

Alcaraz’s second and more general motivation is that he has never played well at this event—he was 3-4 coming into this edition—and he wants to rectify that.

“This tournament is really important,” he said after beating de Minaur. “It’s a tournament that I really want to do great, yeah, trying to win one day. So thanks to that I come here motivated with a great level.”

Fritz, a finalist in Turin last year, also wants to win the tournament, and a win over Alcaraz would put him within striking distance of the semifinals. More important, though, it would be a win over Alcaraz. Fritz is 1-4 against the Spaniard, but he has closed the gap this season. He had chances to push him to a fifth set at Wimbledon, and he recorded his lone win over him in Laver Cup this fall. An indoor hard court is probably the best place for Fritz to get a second victory, and close the gap farther heading into 2026.

The place may be right, but is the time? Alcaraz was mostly sharp in his opening match against de Minaur, and he beat Fritz in straights in the Tokyo final last month. On the other hand, Fritz looked good as well in knocking off home favorite Lorenzo Musetti.

Fritz’s drive to beat Alcaraz in a major event will be strong. But Alcaraz’s drive for No. 1 may be enough to counter it.

The Pick: Alcaraz

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur

🤜 Head to Head: Musetti leads 3-1 (2-0 in 2025)

• Musetti d. de Minaur 1-6, 6-4, 7-6 (4)—Monte Carlo semifinal
• Musetti d. de Minaur 6-4, 6-2—Madrid round of 16

The Preview: It doesn’t take long to get desperate at a year-end championship—just ask these two. It’s only Tuesday, but their fates are already on the line.

That’s because they both lost their openers. De Minaur went out to Alcaraz, and Musetti to Fritz. Neither won a set, and both faded a bit down the stretch. Dropping to 0-2 really isn’t an option if either wants to make the semifinals.

There are reasons for both of them to believe that won’t happen.

If you’re Musetti, you’re taking heart in the head-to-head. He leads de Minaur 3-1, and is 2-0 in 2025. He’ll also have the crowd behind him; in Rome this year, a similarly partisan audience helped him to the semifinals for the first time.

If you’re de Minaur, you’re focusing on the surface. His two losses to Musetti this season came on clay, and he’s beaten the Italian in their only hard-court meeting. According to Alcaraz, this year’s court has been slower than in the past, which helps de Minaur’s dynamic defense.

“Alex I think in this surface is really dangerous with his speed, his shots, his style,” Alcaraz said. “You have to win the point three, four times every time.”

Unfortunately for Musetti, he came to Turin straight from losing a final in Athens. He didn’t have much time to get used to this court, and it showed in his opener. I’m guessing de Minaur will still be a step ahead in that department on Tuesday.

The Pick: de Minaur

📅 Order of Play: Tuesday, Nov. 11

Granollers/Zeballos vs. Bolelli/Vavassori
— 5:30 AM ET

Alcaraz vs. Fritz
— 8:00 AM ET

Cash/Glasspool vs. Krawietz/Puetz
— 12:00 PM ET

Musetti vs. de Minaur
— 2:30 PM ET

📲🖥️ Stream all the action from the ATP Finals on the Tennis Channel App!