ATP Finals, Day 5 Preview: Rafael Nadal vs. Casper Ruud; Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Taylor Fritz

Rafael Nadal vs. Casper Ruud

Ticket-holders may have mixed feelings about Thursday afternoon’s entertainment in Turin. On the plus side, they’ll get to see one of the greatest players of all time take on one of the sport’s future stars, in a rematch of the Roland Garros final. On the minus side, they’ll be watching a contest that has no bearing on this week’s tournament. Ruud has already advanced to the semifinals, and Nadal has already been eliminated. The Spaniard and the Norwegian are scheduled to go on an exhibition tour of South America during the off-season; this match might qualify as the kick-off event.

(A third option is also possible: Rafa pulls out and is replaced by alternate Holger Rune. Judging by their own match at Roland Garros this year, a salty affair won by Ruud, that might be the better dramatic option.)

If Ruud and Rafa do play, the former will be the favorite. After a run of mediocrity this fall, he has turned his game back around this week. He cooled off a hot-hitting Felix Auger Aliassime, and survived a tiebreaker shootout against Taylor Fritz. Forced to play more proactively on the fast courts here, Ruud has made his forehand into the best shot on the court in both matches. Rafa, meanwhile, has been trying to hang on for dear life in rallies, and mostly not hanging on for long; he dropped all four sets to Fritz and FAA.

Can the friendship and good vibes between these two help make the match into something watchable, and competitive? Will Nadal’s desire not to go 0-3 outweighs Ruud’s desire to go 3-0? Those are probably Rafa’s best hopes for success. Winner: Ruud

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Taylor Fritz

Fritz is three years older than Auger-Aliassime, and Auger-Aliassime is ranked three spots higher than Fritz, but the two are at similar junctures in their careers at the moment. This match will determine not just who makes the semifinals in Turin, but who will begin 2023 a step farther up the ATP mountaintop.

It’s fitting that these two would meet to close out the year, because their only previous match came in the opening event of 2022, the ATP Cup. That day, Fritz prevailed 6-4 in the third set. From there, the American and the Canadian had similar rides—mostly up, occasionally very down—through the season.

FAA lost in five sets in the Australian Open quarterfinals; Fritz lost in five in the fourth round. FAA lost a five-set classic to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros; Fritz did the same at Wimbledon. Both made early, dismal exits at the US Open. And both raced down the homestretch to make it to Turin. Fritz won in Tokyo, but FAA crossed the finish line first with three straight titles after that.

Who will take the next step? Auger-Aliassime and Fritz have made themselves into two of the game’s best servers this season, so we can expect a lot of holds, and a tiebreaker or two; together, they’ve already played three of them in Turin. From the ground, both guys do damage with their forehands; Fritz hits his flat, FAA with more topspin than anyone on tour. Both can defend, but neither is going to want to have to do a lot of it on this quick court.

This week Fritz and Auger-Aliassime have each beaten Nadal and lost to Casper Ruud. Fritz came closer against Ruud closer than FAA did, but I’ll still take the Canadian based on his body of work this fall. Winner: Auger-Aliassime