ATP Finals: Fritz vs. De Minaur & Alcaraz vs. Musetti | Previews, Picks, Where to Watch

Taylor Fritz vs. Alex de Minaur

🤜 Head to Head: Tied 5-5 (first meeting in 2025)

The Preview: The four players in the Jimmy Connors Group still have everything to play for. So much, in fact, that the ATP’s website lists 10 different qualification scenarios for the semifinals, which involve all four players. What matters to start the day is that neither Fritz, who is 1-1 so far in Turin, nor De Minaur, who is 0-2, has qualified for the semifinals, or been eliminated from them.

Both the American and the Australian are coming off tough losses on Tuesday. Fritz won the first set against Carlos Alcaraz but couldn’t quite finish the job. De Minaur, meanwhile, was nosed out at the finish line by a crowd-fueled Lorenzo Musetti. Fritz and De Minaur were both brutally honest about their disappointment later. Fritz said he had the shots he wanted to beat Alcaraz, but didn’t make them. De Minaur said the Musetti defeat was another in a series of close losses this year that are starting to “eat me alive.”

All of which means that motivation should be high for each of them on Thursday. They both have a shot at the semis, and they both will want to put a painful loss behind them. They’ll also know that this match will be up for grabs. Fritz and De Minaur have played 10 times, and each has won five. They played four times in 2023 and 2024, and each won twice. They played in Turin last year, and Fritz came back from a set down to win in three.

This is pretty much a pure offense-vs.-defense matchup. Fritz wins with his serve first, and his serve-forehand second. De Minaur, five inches shorter, wins with his speed and scrappiness. That means the result will primarily be on Fritz’s racquet. If he’s hitting the ball well enough to nearly beat Alcaraz, he’s probably hitting it well enough to close it out against De Minaur.

The Pick: Fritz

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti

🤜 Head to Head: Alcaraz leads 6-1 (3-0 in 2025)

• Alcaraz d. Musetti 3-6, 6-1, 6-0—Monte Carlo final
• Alcaraz d. Musetti 6-3, 7-6 (4)—Rome semifinal
• Alcaraz d. Musetti 4-6, 7-6 (3), 6-0, 2-0 ret.—Roland Garros semifinal

The Preview: There are round-robin matches at the ATP Finals, even ones involving great players, that don’t generate much electricity. And there round-robin matches that do. This will be one of the latter.

We’ll have the sport’s most crowd-pleasing and popular player facing off against one of Italy’s local heroes, and there’s a lot at stake for both. With a win, Musetti will move to 2-1 and put himself in position to make the semifinals. A victory for Alcaraz would mean even more. Not only would he advance to the semis, he would clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking for 2025.

Looking at their head-to-head, one thing becomes clear right away: Musetti is going to need all the help he can get. Alcaraz is 6-1 against him, and has won their last six meetings. Granted, five of those seven matches were played on clay—including all three in 2025. But that’s actually worse news for Musetti, because Alcaraz won the two on hard courts in straight sets.

“Great crowd, tough court,” is how you might sum up this event, and especially this match, for Musetti. His one-handed backhand and spin-heavy strokes have traditionally worked better on clay and grass, while Alcaraz long ago made hard courts his home, and is hungry to finally hold the year-end trophy. He hits the ball harder and flatter than Musetti, gets to the net faster, and has the advantage with the serve and the return. Alcaraz should also be able to pick on Musetti’s one-hander.

It’s possible that, if Jannik Sinner loses on Wednesday, Alcaraz will already have clinched No. 1 by the time this match starts. If so, he might have a letdown, having accomplished the first goal of his week. Even then, though, he’ll be the favorite.

The Pick: Alcaraz

📅 Order of Play: Thursday, Nov. 13

Krawietz/Puetz vs. Bolelli/Vavassori
— 5:30 AM ET

Fritz vs. De Minaur
— 8:00 AM ET

Cash/Glasspool vs. Granollers/Zeballos
— 12:00 PM ET

Alcaraz vs. Musetti
— 2:30 PM ET

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