ATP Finals Preview: Nadal ready to battle for end-of-year crown

All eyes are on Rafael Nadal as we begin the Nitto ATP Finals. More specifically, all eyes are on his serve. Last week in Paris, he suffered an abdominal injury while practicing that shot before his semifinal and was forced to withdraw. As of Saturday, Nadal’s serve was at “80 percent,” his coach, Carlos Moya, said. Will that be enough for him to compete? We’ll find out Monday night, when Rafa is scheduled to face Alexander Zverev. In the 15 years that he has qualified for this event, Nadal has pulled out of it seven times. But with the season-ending No. 1 ranking on the line, you have to think he’ll do what he can to play. If he does, and he’s healthy, Nadal and Novak Djokovic should have a fun weeklong duel for the top spot.

Here’s a look ahead at what Nadal and Djokovic, as well as the rest of the field, will face in the ATP’s last season finale in London.

Group Bjorn Borg

Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Dominic Thiem, Matteo Berrettini

Novak Djokovic

Record vs. Group: 32-25

Djokovic comes to London trailing Rafael Nadal by 640 points in the race for the year-end No. 1 ranking. It won’t be easy to make that up. Djokovic is defending runner-up points from last year, while Nadal, who withdrew from this event in 2018, isn’t defending anything. The upside for Djokovic is that he gets to be the hunter rather than the hunted. His goal will be simple: To win every match he can, and get as far as he can. That won’t be easy, either, considering the competition: Federer nearly beat Djokovic at Wimbledon, and Thiem did beat him at Roland Garros. But Djokovic, who is coming off a title run at the Paris Masters last week and has won the ATP Finals five times, will be the favorite in every match he plays.

Roger Federer

Record vs. Group: 25-30

Federer doesn’t have a losing record against many opponents, but he does against two that he’ll face this week. He’s 22-26 against Djokovic, and, surprisingly, just 2-4 against Thiem. Like Djokovic, Federer is coming off a winning week in Basel, and he has six titles at the ATP Finals (though the last one came in 2011). Federer says he’s looking forward to getting another crack at Djokovic after their Wimbledon classic, and he handled Thiem easily at this event last year. He may not be in the race for No. 1 himself, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have a say in it this week.

Dominic Thiem

Record vs group: 12-6

Would you have guessed that Thiem would be the player with the best head-to-head winning percentage in a group that included Djokovic and Federer? Granted, many of his wins have come on clay, but Thiem has also made new inroads on hard courts this year. He beat Federer for the Indian Wells title, and he has won two more hard-court events, in Beijing and Vienna, this fall. For a guy who has a legitimate shot at winning his first major next year—on clay at Roland Garros—this could be a step-up event. The only problem is that Thiem, who always plays a full schedule, never seems to have enough energy left to make that step by this point in the season. In his three trips to London, he’s 3-6, and has yet to advance to the semifinals. This week should be a good test for him.

Matteo Berrettini

Record vs. group: 1-3

And then there’s young Matteo, the grinning rookie who stated the obvious this weekend when he said, “I never expected to be here.” Berrettini lost badly to Federer in their only meeting, at Wimbledon; he’s 1-2 against Thiem; and he has never played Djokovic—he’ll find out what that’s like when they face off on Sunday. But the 23-year-old Italian has earned his way to London, with strong results on all surfaces and a semifinal run at the US Open. He’ll bring a fresh face, and a nothing to lose attitude, to London.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Federer

Group Andre Agassi

Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev

Rafael Nadal

Record vs. Group: 11-1

Nadal will want to do everything possible to get healthy, because his draw gives him a great opportunity. If he can win three round-robin matches, he’ll clinch his fifth year-end No. 1. That’s hardly given, especially at a tournament he’s never won; but judging by his 11-1 record against his three younger opponents in this group, it’s within the realm of possibility, even with his serve at 80 percent. (If Nadal withdraws at any point during the week, his countryman Roberto Bautista Agut will replace him.)

Daniil Medvedev

Record vs. Group: 6-6

Medvedev really likes to play one player in this group, and really doesn’t like to play the other two: He’s 5-0 against Tsitsipas, but 0-2 against Nadal and a surprising 1-5 against Zverev. The Russian may have been the best player in the world over the second half of 2019; the question now is whether, after an early loss in Bercy last week, he can regain that momentum. If so, the fast-rising 23-year-old may present Rafa’s toughest  challenge.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Record vs. Group: 4-10

This is a difficult group for the Greek. Not only is he 1-4 against Nadal—hardly a surprise—he has yet to solve the mystery of Medvedev in five tries. Tsitsipas is made for stages like these, and for bigger things in the future, but he has played a lot of tennis in 2019, and it might show at the 02.

Alexander Zverev

Record vs. Group: 6-8

It’s hard to believe that Zverev is the defending champion at this event, isn’t it? Hard to believe that at this time last year, he was working with Ivan Lendl and beating Federer and Djokovic for the biggest title of his career, and one that looked sure to be a stepping stone for even bigger ones to come. That’s not how it is has worked out for Zverev, who split with Lendl and dropped in the rankings, over the last 12 months. But the German has shown signs of life of late—including a win over Federer in Shanghai—and he’ll surely feel comfortable coming back to this court. Could the future be his again by the end of the week?

Semifinalists: Nadal, Zverev

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Zverev; Federer d. Nadal

Final: Djokovic d. Federer