ATP Finals Semifinal Previews: Novak Djokovic vs. Taylor Fritz; Casper Ruud vs. Andrey Rublev

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Novak Djokovic vs. Taylor Fritz

“I’m not the freshest guy right now talking to you,” Novak Djokovic said in an interview after his three-set win over Daniil Medvedev on Friday. Djokovic said it with a smile, because it was an obvious understatement. He had spent much of the afternoon looking exhausted. At one point, his hand shook wildly on the sidelines; at another, he could hardly bring himself to lift his head from the back of his bench.

Yet Djokovic still emerged a winner. The question for us is: Can he do the same against Fritz? We’ve seen Djokovic bounce back from these types of days; putting his troubles behind him is one of his great strengths. That said, he’ll be facing an uphill climb physically. Fritz will come in with nearly two days of rest, while Djokovic will have less than 24 hours. He’ll need to have his legs and his reflexes firing to keep up with Fritz’s powerful serve and forehand.

In the past, Djokovic has never been especially bothered by the American’s game. He’s 5-0 against him, and four of those wins have come in straight sets. Still, they haven’t played since last November. Fritz has taken several steps upward since then, and made his attack as formidable as anyone else’s on a fast surface like this. It will need to be. Winner: Djokovic

Casper Ruud vs. Andrey Rublev

As in the first semifinal, the head-to-head here is one-sided. Rublev leads 4-1. But that record comes with some caveats. First, Ruud won their most recent meeting, last year in Turin, in a third-set tiebreaker. Second, one of Rublev’s victories came when Ruud retired down two sets to love to him at the 2021 Australian Open. Third, in the 12 months since their last match, Ruud has reached two Grand Slam finals and passed Rublev in the rankings.

The Norwegian and the Russian aren’t undefeated this week, but they’ve been sharp overall. And clutch. Each is here because he prevailed in a tight third-set tiebreaker: Rublev over Medvedev, 9-7; Ruud over Fritz, 8-6. Each has found a way to adjust to the quick courts by taking the initiative in rallies and using his forehand to maximum effect.

Rublev owns the H2H, but I’ll take Ruud for three reasons: (1) He’ll have an extra day of rest; (2) His heavy-topspin forehand allows him to up his attack while taking a little less risk; and (3) He’s been to two more big finals this season than Rublev has. Winner: Ruud