ATP Rome Preview: It’s the first draw of 2023 to include Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz

HIGHLIGHTS: When Alcaraz beat Djokovic in the 2022 Madrid semis

It’s been a minute since the ATP’s top two players, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, were in the same draw. In fact, Rome will be the first time that it’s happened in 2023. While the third major contender for Roland Garros, Rafael Nadal, won’t be in action this week, this expanded, 96-player event should still serve as a revealing and entertaining dress rehearsal for the season’s second Grand Slam.

Djokovic and Alcaraz have met just once, and it was a classic. (Watch the highlights above.) What are the chances we see round two from them in Rome next Sunday? Here’s a look at the bracket.

First Quarter

Djokovic is No. 1 in the world, and he won the year’s only major, but it’s hard to know what kind of form we’ll see from him over the next 10 days. He has played just three tournaments since Australia, hasn’t reached a final, and is 2-2 during the clay season so far. Historically, Rome, where he’s a six-time champion, is where Djokovic kicks his clay game into gear, and where he focuses most of his Roland Garros preparation. Which means there’s a lot at stake for him right now.

The first seed Djokovic could face is Grigor Dimitrov; he may play either Cam Norrie or Alex de Minaur in the round of 16; and his quarterfinal opponent could be Holger Rune. If Djokovic wants and needs a test, he should get it.

• Also here: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Sebastian Korda
• First-round match to watch: Andy Murray vs. Fabio Fognini

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Second Quarter

The top two seeds in this section are Casper Ruud and Jannik Sinner, and it feels like we haven’t heard from either in a while. Ruud lost early in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid, and could use a boost now if he wants to have any hope of defending his runner-up points in Paris. Sinner, meanwhile, was sick in Barcelona and skipped Madrid, and is seemingly focused on a deep run at his home Masters event. Their draws give them a solid chance of meeting in the quarterfinals.

• Americans to watch: Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, Brandon Nakashima
• First-round match to watch: Richard Gasquet vs. Wu Yibing

Semifinalist: Sinner

Third Quarter

Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, the two highest seeds here, have have had great runs and big wins so far in 2023. But each stumbled a bit in Madrid. Was that a one-off, or a sign of things to come in Rome and Paris? Medvedev is the better overall player, but he still hasn’t mastered clay. Rublev is better on dirt, but his deep runs at tournaments tend to come in waves that quickly recede.

Each has potential obstacles to the quarters: Rublev from Taylor Fritz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina; Medvedev from Hubert Hurkacz or Alexander Zverev, who has won this title in the past.

Semifinalist: Zverev

Fourth Quarter

Alcaraz, with a chance to reclaim the No. 1 ranking, will make his first trip to the Foro Italico. There he’ll find a crowd seemingly made to respond to his high-energy style and artful game. The seeds in his half are Jiri Lehecka, Borna Coric and Dan Evans.

But the Spaniard isn’t the only top-tier Roland Garros contender in this quarter; Stefanos Tsitsipas is here as well. The seeds on his side are Yoshihito Nishioka, Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe. Tsitsipas is 0-4 against Alcaraz, and lost to him in straight sets in the Barcelona final last month.

Semifinalist: Alcaraz

Semifinals: Sinner d. Djokovic; Alcaraz d. Zverev

Final: Alcaraz d. Sinner