ATP Toronto Preview: Who takes advantage with Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic all MIA?

It has been a tough couple of summers for the National Bank Open on the men’s side. Last year the field was decimated by the Paris Olympics, and this year it has been decimated again, seemingly for a couple of reasons. One is a rash of niggling injuries among the top players, and the other may be the new, expanded, 12-day version of the event. Now that it starts a week earlier, European players are facing a possible six or seven week stay in the States. For Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Jack Draper, it makes more sense to start their US Open ramp-ups next month in Cincinnati.

That said, at 96 players, the field in Toronto is bigger than ever, and with those openings at the top, opportunities should abound for players in the next tier. Here’s a look at three storylines to follow from up north.

STREAM: Toronto coverage on the Tennis Channel app

We won’t see the Sinner-Alcaraz-Djokovic triumvirate in action. What are some highlights that we can look for instead?

Scanning the brackets, here are few things that stand out.

• A possible third-round match between top seed Alexander Zverev and Joao Fonseca. The Brazilian has to beat a qualifier first, and 32nd-seed Matteo Arnaldi after that. Arnaldi made the semis here last year, but this feels like an opportunity for a rookie talent like Fonseca.
• An early potential clash between Daniil Medvedev, champion in 2021, and Alexei Popyrin, champion in 2024. They’ve had their dramas against each other.
• Holger Rune, the No. 5 seed, spent a few days with Andre Agassi of late. He’ll show us what he’s learned, possibly against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in his opener.
• Canadians have a history of playing well here. There’s one, Gabriel Diallo, who has been on the rise recently, and two others, Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime, who could use a home-crowd boost.
• Stefanos Tsitsipas recently split from Paula Badosa and short-term coach Goran Ivanisevic, and went back to working with his father, Apostolos. He’ll try to put all of that behind him, and try again to slow his rankings slide. He made the final in Canada back in 2018.
• Arthur Fils—remember him?—will play his first match since blowing out his body in an epic five-set win at Roland Garros. He could be heading for a third-rounder with Jiri Lehecka.
• Jenson Brooksby tangles with Corentin Moutet in the first round. I’m thinking sparks could fly, in a less-than-romantic way, between these two.

Who could use this opportunity the most?

We can start at the top, with first two seeds, Zverev and Taylor Fritz.

Zverev’s game and mental state have been in free fall since the Australian Open. He spent some time at the Rafa Nadal Academy this month; let’s see if it helped. Eight years ago, he beat Roger Federer to win this event—feels like another lifetime, doesn’t it?

Fritz, by contrast, played some of his best tennis to make his first Wimbledon semifinal. As well as he has performed in recent years, he still has just one Masters 1000 title to his name. Here’s a chance for him to play an event where he can’t run into any of his three nemeses, Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic.

Ben Shelton, who is seeded in the Top 4 at a Masters 1000 for the first time, also seems like someone who is ready to challenge for this type of title. So far, he has saved his best for the Slams, but he has also been voicing his desire to be more consistent across the board. He could play two countrymen, Marcos Giron and Brandon Nakashima, to start.

What would qualify as a success for this event?

Last year the tournament (which alternates with Montreal each year) never had a chance. Not only did the Olympics take away Djokovic and Alcaraz, it also meant the event’ schedule was shortened. There were good matches, of course, but there wasn’t a whole lot to take away or remember from an event where Popyrin won, and Arnaldi made the semis.

Can the National Bank Open hope for something better this time? Already officials are talking about what they can do in the future to make sure there isn’t a mass desertion among the stars after Wimbledon. There’s no doubt that some tension and electricity will be missing without the big guns; the stakes will be lower.

But I’ll be curious to see if that dampens enthusiasm from fans, or depresses turnout (to steal a political phrase). If matches are competitive, or the Canadians and Americans do well, or a Cinderella story develops, we may not miss the top guys as much.

Will the longer time frame give the event time to build interest, or will it feel like it’s dragging and taking too long? It will be an interesting test of the expanded format that the ATP has wanted for its Masters 1000s for so long.