What a difference a day can make in the life of a tennis prognosticator. Just as I had penciled the words “Elena Dementieva” into a quarterfinal slot in Melbourne, I looked up to see her walking off the court a straight-set, first-round loser to someone named Julia Schruff. More embarrassing, I had believed Venus Williams when she said she was ready for this tournament and envisioned her beating Justine Henin-Hardenne to reach the quarters.
After those confessions, I don’t expect anyone to put money on my picks, unless it’s to bet against them. With that caveat in mind, here, one day into the year’s first major, are the players I see matching up in the quarterfinals. I just hope that by the time I finish this, a few of them will still be in the tournament.
Men
Roger Federer vs. Nikolay Davydenko
The world No. 1’s return of serve should be tested in the third round by net-crasher Max Mirnyi. He’ll also get a chance to avenge one of his four losses of 2005 if he faces Richard Gasquet in what would be an entertaining fourth-rounder. (Gasquet is no sure thing against Tommy Haas, a semifinalist here a few years ago, in the first round.) Davydenko, a quiet fifth seed, has found a soft patch in the draw—Dominik Hrbaty is the next highest seed in his section. The Russian’s toughest match may come right off the bat against huge-serving, 6-foot-10 Ivo Karlovic.
Lleyton Hewitt vs. Fernando Gonzalez
Hewitt has been ill, but he’ll be ready to go to war again for his first title in front of the home-country fans in Melbourne. Teen Brit Andy Murray will take a set from him in the second round but won’t have the stamina to grind Hewitt down. The big-hitting Gonzalez, a third-round loser here last year, has the potential to do well on the high-bouncing surface. He’ll survive tennis’ version of World War III, a third-round encounter with French super-athlete Gael Monfils.
James Blake vs. David Ferrer
This is a tough bracket to pick. David Nalbandian is the highest seed and one of the few guys who can beat Federer and win the whole thing. But he’s already gone five sets and has a test against the young Swiss talent, Stanislas Wawrinka, in his next match. Blake is never a safe choice because of his high-risk style, but he’s steadied himself over the last five or six months. Ferrer, a no-frills Spanish grinder who’s comfortable on slow hard courts, is the default choice in a section where the top player is the less-than-gritty Argentine Gaston Gaudio.
Andy Roddick vs. Ivan Ljubicic
Roddick came out with an in-your-face attitude for his first match—good to see. He’ll need that and more to face down 6-foot-5 Wesley Moodie next and find a way past the newly rock-solid Robby Ginepri after that. If Roddick looks to hit his forehand at all costs, I think he’ll get there. Hard as it is to believe, but Ljubicic, last year’s Davis Cup hero, has never been past the third round at a major. A tough challenge awaits in either Tomas Berdych or Thomas Johansson, but Ljubicic is beyond due.
Women
Lindsay Davenport vs. Justine Henin-Hardenne
The American is trimmer than ever, has always played well in Melbourne, and almost seemed to be enjoying herself during her first-round match (almost). Her toughest match may come against the unpredictable Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova, who beat her at the U.S. Open in 2004. Henin-Hardenne has been in the middle of a comeback for about two years now, and she may never be as formidable as she was when she won here in 2004. But she won a tournament last week and, with Williams’ demise, she’s easily the biggest name in her section.
Maria Sharapova vs. Nadia Petrova
Shoulder problems aside, Sharapova is due to make a run at a major, and she nearly made the final here last year. She should get a chance to avenge that semifinal loss to Serena Williams in the fourth round early next week. Petrova, an improved performer in 2005, will benefit from Dementieva’s defeat and a qualifier-heavy section of the draw.
Amelie Mauresmo vs. Anastasia Myskina
Melbourne Park is the site of Mauresmo’s only appearance in a Slam final, way back in 1999. She’s also coming off the biggest win of her career, at the WTA Championships in November. This might be the last good chance she has at winning a major. On the other side, the top seed is Patty Schnyder, never a factor at the Slams. I’ll take Myskina, who’s coming off a mediocre 2005 but has made the quarters here in the past.
Kim Clijsters vs. Mary Pierce
Semi-injured like everyone else, Clijsters faces little opposition on paper in her section (Francesca Schiavone is next highest seed). The surface suits her well-balanced mix of offense and defense. Pierce may face a third-round match with Martina Hingis, the woman who beat her in the final here all the way back in 1997. But the heavy-hitting Frenchwoman also likes this surface (she won the tournament in ’95) and says she’s ready to take the next step after reaching two major finals last year.