Betting Central

Australian Open Final Betting Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

In his current form, it's hard to make a case for anybody to beat the nine-time champion. But Tsitsipas has made the Serbian work hard before, and we believe he can do it again.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Jan 28, 2023

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We had Novak Djokovic as our pre-tournament best bet to win the 2023 Australian Open, and we suggested betting three or four units on him. It was always clear to us that the Serbian was on a mission to win his 10th title in Melbourne, and we haven’t seen any signs of his hamstring injury slowing him down. With that in mind, we fully expect the 21-time Grand Slam champion to take down third-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. But the oddsmakers aren’t giving the Greek star much a shot at even showing up for this match, with his individual game total in this best-of-five affair being down at 14.5.

The last time Tsitsipas and Djokovic played one another was at the ATP Finals, in mid-November. Djokovic ended up earning a 6-4, 7-6 (4) win over Tsitsipas there, but that was very much a battle throughout. If Tsitsipas shows any of that same tenacity, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to win at least 15 games in this match. These two have met twice in a Grand Slam setting, with both match-ups coming at the French Open, and both of those matches went to deciding fifth sets. That’s important from a mental perspective, as the big stage hasn’t caused Tsitsipas to wilt under pressure against one of the game’s greatest all-time players.

Tsitsipas has been dominated by Djokovic in their career head-to-head series, but will a change in scenery make a difference Sunday?

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One thing to love about this bet is that you’d essentially be home free if Tsitsipas ends up winning a set, and it’s hard to rule that out with the way he has played Down Under—and he's a -190 bet to do so. Tsitsipas has lost only three sets all tournament, and two of those came in a heavyweight battle against Jannik Sinner in the fourth round. Tsitsipas has just been lights out as a server throughout the early portion of the 2023 season, as he has a hold percentage of 91.9%. Tsitsipas also happens to have a break percentage of 24.0% this season, which would be the second-highest mark of his career. Tsitsipas is doing a good job of getting returns in play, which is giving him an opportunity to win points with his elite forehand. His shaky backhand has also managed to hold up thus far.

We said before the tournament that we expected Djokovic to reach “God mode” throughout the 2023 season, and the 35-year-old has somehow found a way to exceed that. Djokovic has dropped just one set through six matches, despite some talented players, like Grigor Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul. There aren’t many people on the planet that believe Tsitsipas can beat him in this current form, but we like that he doesn’t have to. If he can just steal a set or work his way into two tiebreakers, this Over should hit with ease. And Tsitsipas is playing well enough for us to believe he’ll do that.

At the very least, this is a reasonable way to play this match without having to lay ridiculous odds. And this is also a way to potentially middle the match, if you backed Djokovic before the tournament.

BET: Tsitsipas Over 14.5 Games Won (-130)

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