Australian Open Quarterfinal Previews: Jannik Sinner vs. Alex de Minaur, Iga Swiatek vs. Emma Navarro, Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina

Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina

Once upon a time, mid-round matches between these two at the Slams looked they were going to turn into a tradition. In 2017 and 2019, Keys and Svitolina met twice in the fourth round of the US Open, and once in the fourth round at the Australian Open. Svitolina won twice, and Keys once.

But the budding rivalry didn’t continue to grow. Their most recent match, which Keys won, was in Adelaide in 2022.

Read More: Elina Svitolina will be courtside for husband Gaël Monfils, hopes he joins her in Australian Open quarterfinals

Now they’ll clash again, with a berth in a Slam semi on the line. As is usually the case with players who have gone this deep at a major, each is dialed in and playing inspired tennis. Keys has won nine straight matches, and she flew past No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina in the third set on Monday. Svitolina’s hitting hasn’t been quite as spectacular as that, but she has played with maximum emotion and motivation, and she took out her own high seed, Jasmine Paolini, 6-0 in the third.

Keys noticed.

“Honestly, I was so impressed,” she said of Svitolina’s aggressive play in her win over Paolini. “She was really going after her shots and hitting some incredible forehands. I definitely think it’s not going to be the typical matchup that we have had in the past.”

Keys says she expects to see a bigger-hitting Svitolina, and Svitolina should probably expect the same from Keys. As hard as it may be to believe, the American says that she has been combating her nerves lately not by trying to play more safely, but by going for even more.

“I think I’ve actually been—and it’s going to sound crazy, but I think I have actually been working on trying to play a little bit more aggressive,” Keys said after win over Rybakina. “I found that in the second set I got a little bit nervous, and I felt like I got a little bit passive.”

All of which may mean that this match won’t be all that different from their past contests. Keys will get the first strike in, and Svitolina will punch back when she can. You can always expect a few peaks and valleys from Keys, but if she can keep her level close to where it has been for her last nine wins, she should walk away with No. 10. Winner: Keys

Jannik Sinner vs. Alex de Minaur

As far as potential Grand Slam quarterfinal opponents go, Sinner would probably choose De Minaur every time.

They’ve played nine matches dating back to 2019, and the Italian has won all nine. Since 2020, he hasn’t dropped a set. When they played at the Australian Open three years ago, Sinner won in straights.

Read More: Jannik Sinner finishes off Holger Rune in Melbourne after lengthy medical timeout and net malfunction delays

There’s no getting around it, history says this is going to be an uphill climb for the home-country hero, but he’s trying to stay as positive as possible.

“Jannik is a hell of a player, right?” De Minaur told reporters. “The great thing about tennis is that once you step out on the court, you both start at 0-0, right?”

As much as any top player, Sinner has been able to expose De Minaur’s lack of first-strike weaponry. The Aussie’s strength is his scrambling and counterpunching, but Sinner serves too well, hits too hard, places the ball too precisely for his defense to be effective. De Minaur hasn’t found a way to hurt, rattle, of disrupt him.

Is all hope lost for the last Australian standing? As De Minaur says, there’s always something positive to cling to before a match begins.

Sinner has been sick. He said he was dizzy in his last match, against Holger Rune, who won a set and had chances to win another. De Minaur, unlike in his previous rounds, will also not feel the pressure of being the favorite; as an underdog, he can swing freely. And the crowd will be there for him from start to finish.

That said, Sinner’s illness in his last round only revealed an even steelier calm under pressure. He’s a bad matchup for De Minaur, the same way he’s a bad matchup for everyone right now. Winner: Sinner

Iga Swiatek vs. Emma Navarro

Navarro may be glad to hear that Swiatek thinks their only previous meeting doesn’t matter.

“We kind of played in 2018, but, like I’m not going to count this,” the No. 2 seed says.

The Pole and the American did play a full match in 2018, in fact, on clay in Charleston, and Swiatek won 6-0, 6-2. Navarro, perhaps unfortunately, seems to remember it better than Iga.

“I feel like there were not too many times when I was totally blown off the court, and I definitely was kind of blown off the court playing her,” Navarro says. “I think maybe at the time she was ranked 200 or something. We played at my home club in Charleston. I was, like, ‘Wow, this girl is pretty good.’

Six years later, Swiatek is still blowing people off the court. In her last three matches, she has lost just four games, and won three bagel sets. New coaches often bring immediate boosts, and that seems to be the case right now with Swiatek and her new mentor, Wim Fissette.

Can Navarro slow the Iga train? She’ll have to raise her own level considerably. While Swiatek has dominated, Navarro has survived four consecutive three-set matches, and made the Bee Gees “Stayin’ Alive” her theme song.

Read More: Emma Navarro 'stayin' alive' at the Australian Open, set to face Iga Swiatek in quarterfinals

If Swiatek is taking the initiative in rallies, and her shots are clicking, it will be hard for the 5-foot-7 Navarro to counter her. That said, Navarro is capable of more than she has shown so far Down Under. Last spring, she found a way to frustrate and beat an even bigger hitter in Aryna Sabalenka.

Like anyone who faces Swiatek, Navarro will want get her teeth into this one early. Otherwise, the Iga train will be rolling rapidly to her first AO semifinal. Winner: Swiatek