Australian Open Tip Sheet: What's the best way to bet Novak Djokovic as a massive favorite?

HIGHLIGHTS: Djokovic defeats de Minaur

Another night of Australian Open quarterfinals means another opportunity to make some money. Keep reading to find out how we’re betting all four of the matches on this slate.

Andrey Rublev vs. Novak Djokovic

It’s hard to find bets to make in Djokovic matches, as the nine-time Australian Open champion is often a massive favorite. The Serbian is listed at -650 to beat Rublev, a fellow Top 10 player. We would never suggest backing a favorite that heavy, and we also don’t think Djokovic is going to easily cover the hefty game spread. With that in mind, the Over is our best option. Djokovic looked remarkable in his straight-set win over Alex de Minaur in the fourth round, but Rublev has put together one of the most impressive bodies of work in Melbourne. He has already earned wins over Dominic Thiem, Emil Ruusuvuori, Daniel Evans and Holger Rune. He’ll head into this match with zero expectations, which should allow him to play freely. Look for the Russian, who has a booming serve and vicious forehand, to play just well enough to get this bet over the finish line. LEAN: Over 34.5 Games (-120)

Ben Shelton vs. Tommy Paul

This pricing almost seems like a gift from the oddsmakers, as Shelton has the weapons required to give Paul a lot of trouble. The 20-year-old has already emerged as one of the best servers on the ATP Tour, as he is sporting a 93.1% hold percentage to start the 2023 season. As long as Shelton has that untouchable serve, the southpaw is going to have chances to win every match he plays. But that’s especially true against a player like Paul, who can occasionally lose focus and hand his opponents a break. Also, while Shelton is playing with house money as he continues this remarkable run, Paul is going to be expected to beat a younger American player. Paul hasn’t been a player that can be trusted as a favorite in the past. BEST BET: Shelton +4.5 Games (-120) / Shelton ML (+210 – half-unit)

Magda Linette vs. Karolina Pliskova

Pliskova has been a goldmine for us throughout this tournament, but this match-up isn’t as straightforward as the others. Linette actually beat the Czech star in straight sets when they met at the Billie Jean King Cup in November, and these two played a lengthy match in the 2022 US Open. Pliskova ended up winning that match 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 (8), but Linette’s game was tricky for her to figure out. We definitely like Pliskova’s playing style a bit better on this fast surface, as she has been brilliant as a server with her deep, flat groundstrokes. But Linette is also playing very well in Melbourne, and she just beat a similar opponent, Caroline Garcia. Pliskova would probably be our pick to win this match, but we’re much more comfortable playing the Over, as this should be competitive throughout. LEAN: Over 21.5 Games (-125)

Donna Vekic vs. Aryna Sabalenka

It’s nice to see Vekic playing so well after two trying years, but it’s hard to envision her putting up a fight against this version of Sabalenka. The Belarusian has been a force to start the 2023 season, winning a tune-up tournament in Adelaide and making easy work of players like Elise Mertens and Belinda Bencic. Hidden behind last year’s troubling serving issues was the fact that Sabalenka still turned in a magnificent season. That’s a testament to how good she is in every other aspect of the game, and those service issues appear to be a thing of the past. That should mean an easy victory. LEAN: Under 2.5 Sets (-135)