This week’s China Open marks an endpoint to the WTA’s inaugural Roadmap schedule. It’s the last of the tour's “Premier Mandatory” events, the four tournaments—Indian Wells, Key Biscayne, and Madrid are the others—that the top players must enter. Getting everyone together four times in 11 months was a decidedly modest goal, considering that the ATP expects its stars to show up for twice as many non-majors. And it didn’t get off to an auspicious start, as Venus and Serena Williams skipped the first of the PMs, Indian Wells, and made it clear they’ll keep skipping it no matter how many thousands of dollars—i.e., spare change—the tour takes out of their pockets.
Looking over the draw for Beijing, though, we can see that the Roadmap has finished its first year on a high note. Every player of consequence showed up, except for Ana Ivanovic, who probably made the right decision in shutting down her season before she can inspire another set of dire headlines. We’ll see what the crowds look like—they’ve been notoriously sparse in China over the years—but the WTA has, for the first time in recent memory, managed to create a significant and fully supported event between the U.S. Open and the season-ending championships.
The one drawback, media-wise, is that it happens to be on the other side of the earth from most tennis journalists, including this one. By the time I got up this morning, the first round was over, and who knows, by the time I finish writing this, three seeds could have dropped. I have no idea when matches are going on over there, but this is looking like a wild week for the WTA: No. 1 seed Dinara Safina and No. 3 Venus Williams have both lost since I began writing this post. The tour got the best to come to Beijing; now they just need to find a way to make them win once they’re there.
Still, it’s never too late to look ahead (are those some accidental words to live by?).
First Quarter
At long last, Dinara Safina, who was upset by a Chinese wild card in the second round today, may surrender her No. 1 ranking to Serena Williams. It could be a blessing in disguise for Safina—the ranking and the scrutiny it brings has become a distraction rather than a form of motivation.
The players with the best chance of make the most of Safina’s defeat appear to be Marion Bartoli and Vera Zvonareva. Bartoli had what looked like a promising summer stolen away by Kim Clijsters, who beat her at two tournaments, one of which was the U.S. Open. Now that Clijsters is safely back at home, maybe Bartoli can pick up where she left off in Stanford, where she beat Venus Williams for the title. Zvonareva, presumably, has recovered from her flagrant and painful self-destruction against Flavia Pennetta at the Open. She beat Sorana Cirstea easily in the first round in Beijing.
Semifinalist: Zvonareva
Second Quarter
This section has already been cleared of its second seed, Caroline Wozniacki, who may be suffering, understandably, from a little U.S. Open withdrawal after her runner-up finish there. That leaves Elena Dementieva as the prohibitive favorite to reach the semifinals; she may be weary, as she says, after a long year, but returning to the city where she had her greatest triumph—an Olympic gold medal—must feel good. In her way are home-country favorite Na Li and, possibly, Agnieszka Radwanska. It doesn’t take much for a draw to become wide open, does it?
Semifinalist: Dementieva
Third Quarter
Speaking of upsets, young Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has beaten Venus Williams for the second straight week, this time 6-4 in the third set. It’s a strange pattern, but one you see surprisingly often: A player starts a season well, looks like he or she is on the rise and someone to reckon with at the Slams, gets tripped up and loses momentum through the middle of the season, is temporarily forgotten or written off, and then makes a strong return at the end of the year, when there’s less pressure. This is currently the case with Pavlyuchenkova, a big-hitting but wildly erratic and finesse-starved teenager who reached the semifinals at Indian Wells and then promptly dropped out of sight. The biggest threat to another semifinal run for her is Svetlana Kuznetsova, another Russian who tends to thrive—or at least reach the finals—when all eyes aren’t on her. She was the runner-up here last year.
Semifinalist: Kuznetsova
Fourth Quarter
Serena Williams, Jelena Jankovic, Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka, Nadia Petrova: This is the section to watch; it’s too bad that only one of them can reach the semis. Williams says she’s motivated to become No. 1 again, and Sharapova is coming off a tournament win in Tokyo. Jankovic hurt herself in the final there, but seems ready to soldier on as always. Azarenka may be another victim/beneficiary of Pavlyuchenkova-style early-season success. She beat Serena Williams in Key Biscayne in April, had solid runs at the French Open and Wimbledon, and hasn’t done much since. Is Vika primed for a resurgence, or did she work too hard through the first half of the season? I'm going to guess the latter.
The bigger question, as it always is, is the state of Serena’s motivation and mood. Her track record at non-Slam events, particularly late-season non-Slam events, is not dazzling. The one player we know will be ready, mentally, will be Sharapova.
Semifinalist: Sharapova
Semifinals: Zvonareva d. Dementieva; Kuznetsova d. Sharapova
Final: Kuznetsova d. Zvonareva
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Enjoy the women while you have them; there are broadcasts on Tennis Channel and TennisTV later in the week. The men are back with a mandatory event starting Sunday in Shanghai.