Bet du Jour: Elina Svitolina vs. Daria Kasatkina, Roland Garros

Svitolina is 6-0 in the head-to-head history between these two, but is getting +150 odds to win.

Published Jun 03, 2023

INTERVIEW: E. Svitolina; Roland Garros 1R Win

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INTERVIEW IN PARIS: Elina Svitolina

It’s fair to expect Elina Svitolina’s game to tail off at some point. After all, her return in April marked a little over a year since the last time she played professional tennis. Svitolina was on maternity leave, but despite that absence—and the war in her homeland—she has looked completely back in recent weeks. The Ukrainian won a title in Strasbourg before heading to Paris, and she has now won eight consecutive matches.

With that in mind, I like the value on her to beat No. 9 seed Daria Kasatkina at Roland Garros on Sunday.

While Kasatkina should be in even better form than Svitolina right now, it’s hard to be too excited about where the Russian’s game is. Kasatkina hasn’t lost a set since arriving in Paris, which is obviously very impressive. And the fact that one of her wins came over Marketa Vondrousova is nothing to sneeze at. But Kasatkina has looked a little off with her serve since the start of the 2023 season. In fact, her 58.2% hold percentage is the lowest that number has been since 2020. And while other players haven’t been able to take advantage of that, I think Svitolina can. The Ukrainian has an outrageous 42.0% break percentage since the start of 2023.

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Not only is Svitolina playing very well right now, but she also knows for a fact that her best tennis can top Kasatkina’s best.

It's also just hard to ignore the fact that Svitolina is 6-0 against Kasatkina in their head-to-head history. The last two meetings between the two ended in straight sets, with the most recent coming at the 2021 US Open. This has just been a completely one-sided rivalry in the past, and I think that will give Svitolina some added confidence when she goes out here Not only is she playing very well right now, but she also knows for a fact that her best tennis can top Kasatkina’s best.

This should end up being a fun match to watch, so I’d understand if you chose to play the Over on the game total instead. But I think this is a great spot to back a +150 underdog. It’s not often that you can get a price like this on a player with this combination of form and recent success against an opponent. You’re also going to see Svitolina with the full backing of the French crowd, and that just might help her raise her game even more.

Bet: Svitolina To Win (+150)

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