We’re getting there. February, traditionally a time of respite, went in like a lamb and came out like something of a lion. This past weekend Roger Federer and Grigor Dimitrov closed the month with potentially significant 500-level titles in Dubai and Acapulco. At the very least, their wins serve as worthy preludes to what comes next: The year’s first Masters 1000 event, in Indian Wells. With it the men begin the heart of their season, which lasts, largely uninterrupted, until the end of the U.S. Open. From now on, everything counts.
And Indian Wells may count as much any event. This year no player comes to California as a clear-cut favorite; the season's momentum is still for the taking. Rafael Nadal, the defending champion, has played well, but his loss in the Aussie Open hurt, physically and perhaps psychically. Novak Djokovic arrives without a tournament title for the first time since 2006. Andy Murray is still putting back surgery behind him. And after taking a month off and walking the runways of Italy, Stan Wawrinka, surprise champion Down Under, will finally make his royal return to the tour.
There’s a lot at stake for each of them, because Indian Wells has been a harbinger in years past. In 2013, Nadal rolled to a surprising title, and kept rolling from there. A year later, Rafa is at the top of the Indian Wells draw, which was made this afternoon. Despite an almost total lack of interesting first-round matches, it eventually does its best to give us what we’ve been waiting to see.
First Quarter
If Nadal’s going to repeat, he’s going to earn it; his quarter is pretty well loaded. He’ll start with the winner between Radek Stepanek and Denis Istomin, and then could get a rematch with the man he beat in the final last week in Rio, Alexandr Dolgopolov. The Ukrainian has had a good run of late, and pushed Nadal on clay in South America. After that, Rafa is scheduled to face either Gael Monfils or Fabio Fognini, neither a slouch so far in 2014.
The landscape doesn’t look any more forgiving in the other half. Andy Murray is is the top seed there, but Milos Raonic and Jerzy Janowicz, each of whom owns at least one win over Murray, are as well. Murray, who hasn’t reached a final yet this season and has struggled in Indian Wells over the years, is still a question mark. He could face Lukas Rosol, a potentially difficult opponent, in his opener.
I’d love to see a Nadal-Murray quarter; they haven’t played since 2011, when Murray was still a Grand Slam wanna-be. It’s the Big 4 match-up we’ve been missing, and you never know when it might come around again.
Semifinalist: Nadal