Brad Gilbert, Patrick McEnroe weigh in on U.S. men's tennis evolution

This year marks the 10th anniversary of Tommy Paul’s triumph over Taylor Fritz in the final of the Roland Garros boy’s final, a win that some took as a national coming-of-age event. Perhaps the American men, long averse to clay, would soon be as proficient on the dirt as so many clay-trained Europeans were on hard courts (at the time six of the ATP Top 10, led by Novak Djokovic had won hard-court majors).

That hope largely went unrealized. No American man has reached the semifinals at Roland Garros since Andre Agassi in 2003. But right now, with the European clay swing about to kick into gear at the Monte Carlo Masters, the U.S. generation led by No. 4 ranked, 2024 US Open finalist Fritz has even more to worry about.

Back in October of 2023, Fritz led a team of four American men, also including Frances Tiafoe, Paul and Ben Shelton, into the high life, the ATP Top 15. The future looked rosy. As of today, though, only No. 4 ranked Fritz has improved on his ranking of that time. Is it a blip in what has been a steady upward curve, or a troubling sign?

Even the most ardent boosters of the U.S. game have concerns.

“We have a lot of guys that are quality players,” elite coach and ESPN analyst Brad Gilbert told me during last week’s Houston tournament, in a conversation about the recent fortunes of American men. “And now there are younger ones, too. They are all getting a lot better. That’s why we're a lot deeper (the U.S. has 10 men in the Top 100 during the first week in April). Sometimes the results aren't exactly what you want, but you’ve got to keep pressing on.”

Of course, this has been a season of massive disruption on the men’s tour. It was triggered partly by the doping suspension that sidelined No. 1 Jannik Sinner shortly after he bagged the Australian Open title.

Despite the opportunity represented by Sinner’s absence, the recent “Sunshine Double” proved frustrating for Sinner’s two most highly-ranked challengers, No. 2 Alexander Zverev and No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz—and particularly disheartening for fans of U.S. tennis. The titles were claimed by newcomers to the Masters 1000 roll of champions not named Paul or Tiafoe or Shelton but Great Britain’s Jack Draper (Indian Wells) and Czechia’s Jakub Mensik (Miami).

The U.S. did have a few bright spots: Fritz lost to the eventual champion in both events and didn’t drop serve once in his excruciatingly tight, three-set Miami semifinal with Mensik. Learner Tien, the 19-year old who was a revelation in Melbourne, gave new sensation Joao Fonseca all he could handle in Miami in an electric struggle. Alas, it was just a first-round encounter and Tien was gone almost before he arrived.

We have a lot of [U.S.] guys that are quality players. And now there are younger ones, too. They are all getting a lot better...Sometimes the results aren't exactly what you want, but you’ve got to keep pressing on. Brad Gilbert

“Our guys seem to be in the same group as many other players out there,” Patrick McEnroe, an expert in player development and co-director of the John McEnroe Tennis Academy, told me. “If you look at the struggles of [Stefanos] Tsitsipas and Zverev, who have obviously had even more success than our guys, it looks like winning a big tournament is getting further out of reach rather than closer for us—at least for the guys that are now in their mid-20s.”

It’s easy to distinguish between the two generations currently afoot in U.S. tennis. All the members of the core group led by Fritz, which also includes oft-injured Reilly Opelka, are 27 years old. The leader of the younger generation is 22-year-old Shelton, and his peers are Learner Tien, Alex Michelsen, Jenson Brooksby, Sebastian Korda (a ‘tweener at 24) and Brandon Nakashima (23).

If the older generation is hearing footsteps you wouldn’t know it. For one pleasant side effect of the long struggle to find the next male American Grand Slam singles champion is the impressive team spirit it has created for all.

“I definitely think [competition among generations] helps,” argued McEnroe, also a former head of Player Development for the USTA. “I think it helps all of them, young and old. In my years at the USTA, our goal was always trying to make as many really, really good players as we could.”

As the rankings suggest, that mission has been accomplished—even if it did not quell demands for another Andy Roddick or Pete Sampras. Fritz, or one of his peers, may still make that breakthrough. And while there are encouraging signs of progress among the younger generation, the data on some of them is insufficient.

Like Opelka, Korda’s injury history has put his career on hold for significant periods. Nakashima won the 2022 ATP Next Generation Finals, but he hasn’t climbed above Top 30 level. By now, the enormous up-side of Shelton is widely acknowledged. The hype among insiders lately has been mostly about Michelsen and Tien.

McEnroe believes it’s because they are fighters, natural-born competitors. He said, “They both have moxie.”

Michelsen, age 20, is a rail-thin 6-foot-4 and hit a ranking high of No. 32 in March. His serve is already good and will certainly get even better—perhaps much better. Pundits already rhapsodize about his versatile two-handed backhand. Michelsen reached the fourth round at the Australian Open earlier this year, on the strength of his second career win over multiple Grand Slam finalist Tsitsipas, and an upset of Karen Khachanov.

“Michelsen is sneaky good,” Gilbert told me. “I'd be really surprised if he doesn’t make [at least] the Top 10. His backhand is really good, and he's really clever.”

Like [former world No. 1 Marcelo] Rios, Tien has an amazing feel for the game. The question will be, does he have enough firepower to be a major contender? Patrick McEnroe

Tien had an amazing breakout at the Australian Open, winning seven matches from qualifying to reach the fourth round; along the way he knocked out former finalist Daniil Medvedev. Although many see Tien’s listed height of 5-foot-11 as a significant shortcoming, it is somewhat mitigated by the fact that he is a lefty. McEnroe said Tien reminds him of another former southpaw sensation who was slight of build but still did just fine—former No. 1 Marcelo Rios.

“Like Rios, Tien has an amazing feel for the game,” McEnroe said. “The question will be, does he have enough firepower to be a major contender, enough pop on his serve and that pure physicality that almost seems like a prerequisite these days?”

Shelton sits at the head of the kid’s table. At No. 14 he is still just two ticks off his career-high ranking of No. 12. He’s already won two titles, and he’s 135-76 on the main tour. Gilbert pointed out that despite his age (22), Shelton is the only U.S. player who has already been in the semifinals at two different majors, the US and Australian Opens.

“There’s no doubt,” Gilbert said. “He’s got the biggest weapon in that serve, and he’s the most athletic.”

McEnroe believes that among the Americans, Shelton has the most impressive combination of explosive athleticism, speed and power. He also has another big weapon in his forehand. Shelton is just one of three active Americans (the others are Korda and Opelka) who have won titles on clay. It seems that despite that highlight moment of a decade ago, American players—with the exception of Fritz and Shelton—are just not prepared to go all-in on clay. So, any push by either generation of US players likely will not come until after the clay season.

When I asked Gilbert if he’s worried that the Fritz generation will lose even more ground in the coming months, he replied: “Let's hope they pick it back up. You know, I just want to be hopeful. How about that? I'd rather be hopeful than be bitter.”