The Estoril final will be played today, between Frederico Gil and Albert Montanes, one of whom will join Anastasija Sevastova as a singles champion in this picturesque, low-key Portuguese event. Among the also rans at this bottom-rung ATP 250 event: Roger Federer. He was beaten by Montanes in the semifinals, after battling his way through two wins (Bjorn Phau in three sets, and Arnaud Clement). They're the only two Ws The Mighty Fed notched up thus far on the dusty red-clay trail leading to Paris. Of course, given the preponderance of damp, cool days this Spring, I'm using "dusty" figuratively,
So let's cut to the chase: If you're a diehard Federer fan, Is it time to panic yet?
You bet.
Once again, it didn't seem so much that Federer lost, but how he lost. A few months ago, on the U.S. hard court circuit, as well as in his single appearance in Rome, it seemed that he managed to found a way to lose when he was in a position to win, a reversal of SFOP, or Standard Federer Operating Procedure. If anything, we're accustomed to seeing this guy find a way to when he's been in a position to lose. Remember Kolya (Nikolay Davydenko), Tommy Haas, even Juan Martin del Potro, just to mention a few of his great clay-court escapes at recent French Opens?
It's puzzling enough when the greatest player ever loses after holding match point, as Federer did on those hard-court occasions. What's worse is that In Estoril he had a 5-2 lead in the second set tiebreaker (after losing the first set to Montanes) and allowed Montanes to slip the hook and win the match, 6-2 7-6(5). In other words, Federer may not have been close to winning the match this time, but he had a chance to keep the match alive. He blew it. You can almost see him fading in the home stretch, or getting smaller in the rear view mirrors of all those hungry, sharp, fit players preparing on for the French Open.
No matter how you cut it, even if you leave your rose-colored glasses on, this last loss is a really bad omen,even if you count Federer out at your peril. It suggests that he's getting incrementally farther from rather than closer to the position from which he can win. What next, a 6-1, 6-4 "routine" loss to, say, Andreas Seppi in the first round of the Madrid Masters 1000 event?
Federer beat Clement in the Estoril quarterfinals, in straight sets, but let's remember that Clement is 32 years old and 8-11 on the year. He was within a point of winning the first set against Federer, and after the match the world no. 1 said: “I didn’t play beautiful tennis. I had to play safe, which isn’t something I’m used to doing. I have always struggled against him and today you could see that.”
So the theme has matured: It isn't as much that Federer is losing matches, or even who is beating him. It's how Federer is losing, going from coming up just short in tight battles against the likes of Marcos Baghdatis to falling in straights to Montanes. And always - but always - with plenty of chances to win, or at least make a course correction that puts him back on the winning track.
Federer can still rekindle his aura of invincibility if he goes deep and beats a few contenders in the upcmoing Madrid Masters next week; but he's dug himself into a deep, deep hole by stalling out in Estoril. He's presently in no shape to play close matches against quality opponents, but his recent form suggests that he may not be able to survive long enough to meet a contender in a Masters 1000, never mind a Grand Slam event. That's a particularly perilous position, because in this stage of Federer's career, a sufficiently threatening, talented player might provide him with enough inspiration (or fear) to jump start his game. But he's not playing well enough to get to one.
Meanwhile, U.S. fans are entitled to feel pretty good about events in Belgrade. John Isner and Sam Querrey will battle it out today for the title there. It's the first time two American contest a clay-court final since Andre Agassi and Jim Courier squared off for the French Open title nearly two decades ago (1991). Nobody is about to mistake Belgrade for Paris, but still. . . Isner and Querrey, the twin towers of American tennis, have found a way to feed off each other, perhaps with the help of their friendship, to infuse the American game with new hope. That's the match I'll be watching today; feel free to comment on it here.