Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev: Australian Open semifinal preview and pick

They know each other’s games as well as any two top players of this decade. In just four years, they’ve played 12 times, and split those matches 6-6.

You might think there’s a catch to that record, that Zverev jumped ahead when Alcaraz was a teenager, and the Spaniard has since caught up. But they’ve also split their six most recent meetings, 3-3. While Alcaraz won their only encounter of 2025, in Cincinnati, Zverev won the only time they played at the Australian Open, back in 2024. In their biggest match, the 2024 Roland Garros final, Alcaraz had to come back from two sets to one down to win in five.

Alcaraz even says their training sessions are tight.

“I just got a practice with him, which the level was really, really high,” he said. “It was 7-6. Probably one hour, 30…it was a high level of tennis, high level of intensity.”

“It’s going to be a great battle,” he says of the real match with Zverev ahead. “I know that he’s serving pretty well. He’s playing really solid and aggressive when he can in the rallies from the baseline.”

Zverev’s somewhat unusual combination of strengths can frustrate Alcaraz and keep him at bay. The 6’6” German has one of the best serves on tour, but he also backs it with a steady baseline game, with heavy spin and depth. When Zverev has both of those things clicking, it forces Alcaraz to hit with a high degree of pace and consistency at the same time.

According to Zverev, so far this year he has been buoyed by good health.

“Being pain-free is the biggest change that I’ve had in the last 12 months,” he says.

“Also, I’ve worked on my game. I’ve worked on my aggressive game. I’ve worked on my first shots after the serve, my first forehand after the serve…If those things work for me, then I think success will come as well.”

Zverev won’t be as intimidated by Alcaraz as most of his other opponents are. And his level does seem high enough to give him a chance. But Alcaraz looks sharp, too. He’s been as electric as ever as a shot-maker, and this time around his concentration level has stayed high; he hasn’t dropped a set. If both of these guys play well, Alcaraz wins.

Winner: Alcaraz