Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will play for the No. 2 ranking in Indian Wells on Saturday

The battle for the ATP No. 2 ranking is something tennis fans have been keeping an eye on throughout the Indian Wells fortnight, and now it’ll all come down to just one match.

The winner of the blockbuster semifinal clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner on Saturday will leave tennis paradise as the No. 2-ranked player in the world.

Coming into Thursday, it was actually a three-man race—current No. 4 Daniil Medvedev was still in the mix, too. But with current No. 3 Sinner defeating Jiri Lehecka in the first quarterfinal of the day, 6-3, 6-3, the No. 2 ranking moved beyond Medvedev’s reach.

Current No. 2 Alcaraz followed Sinner into the semifinals later in the day, surviving a bee invasion en route to a 6-3, 6-1 victory over Alexander Zverev, avenging his loss to the German in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in January.

So now, it all comes down to Alcaraz and Sinner—the winner of that semifinal will be No. 2 on Monday, and the other will be No. 3.

For Sinner, No. 2 would be a new career-high ranking.

Novak Djokovic will spend his record-extending 417th career week at No. 1 on the ATP rankings next week.

There isn’t much between Alcaraz and Sinner in their head-to-head—Sinner leads their tour-level head-to-head, 4-3, while Alcaraz won their only previous meeting below tour-level, at a Challenger in 2019. They’re 2-2 on outdoor hard courts.

They can both draw positives from their recent meetings, though.

Alcaraz won the pair’s only previous meeting at Indian Wells, a 7-6 (4), 6-3 victory in the same match a year ago, the semifinals.

Sinner has won both of the pair’s encounters since then, though—a grueling 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-2 victory a few weeks later in the semifinals of Miami, then a more dominant 7-6 (4), 6-1 triumph in the semifinals of the ATP 500 event in Beijing last fall.

“Carlos, it’s always fun to play with him,” Sinner said on Thursday. “We're good friends off the court. On the court, we try to give 100%.

“I think we have a good attitude on court. Usually the matches are good. Last year against him, especially here on this court, I struggled a lot. He played much better than me, then two weeks later I played Miami against him, where I won. So let’s see.”

“He’s the best tennis player in the world right now, without a doubt,” Alcaraz said of Sinner after his quarterfinal win over Zverev. “I hear some declarations from Tommy Paul that was funny for me, that he’s absolutely naked right now. He’s playing unbelievable, no losses this year. I really enjoy watching him play. So it’s going to be a really difficult match. It’s going to be a big challenge for me and see what is my level facing him.

“The last, I think the last two matches that I have played against him I lost, so I have to adjust a little bit my game and let’s see how it’s going to be. But for sure it’s going to be the most difficult match that I’m going to play this year.”