Carlos Alcaraz’s absence leaves Jannik Sinner alone at the top for the rest of the clay swing

Classic-match sequels can be hard to make happen. Especially, it seems, for Spanish greats.

After beating Roger Federer in the half-darkness at Wimbledon in 2008, Rafael Nadal was forced to withdraw the following year with knee tendinitis. He and Federer wouldn’t play again on Centre Court for another decade.

After losing to Novak Djokovic in a nearly six-hour final at the Australian Open in 2012, Nadal again had to pull out of the tournament 12 months later, this time due to a stomach virus. He and Djokovic wouldn’t face off Down Under for six more years.

Now, unfortunately, it’s Carlos Alcaraz’s turn to miss out on a major rematch. A year ago, he saved three match points to beat Jannik Sinner in the best final in Roland Garros history. On Friday, he said that a right wrist injury will keep him from defending his crown.

As far as potential bummers for this tennis season go, Alcaraz’s announcement has to be at the very top of the list. He and Sinner appeared perfectly poised to duel through Madrid and Rome, with the culmination and coronation sure to be staged in Paris.

Alcaraz won 16 straight matches, and the Australian Open, to start the year. Sinner responded by winning 18 (and counting) straight matches, and the Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami. At the season’s first clay Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo, they met in the final, and Sinner won a tough and intriguing two-setter. That match was good, but it left room for much more drama, and a likely Alcaraz response, to come.

Alcaraz’s announcement highlights how fragile everything—rivalries, careers, hopes for classic matches—can be in tennis. In team sports, if there’s an injury to a player, or even three players, the team doesn’t stop playing. In tennis, when Alcaraz gets hurt during the clay season, the season as we knew it, or planned it, suddenly ceases to exist.

So what do we have now?

The most obvious effect is that Sinner is left alone at the top of the ATP hill. He has his win streak, which went from 17 to 18 today. He has the No. 1 ranking, which he grabbed from Alcaraz in Monte Carlo. He’s a colossal 8,000 points ahead of the next active player, Alexander Zverev. And he has no points to defend in Madrid, while Alcaraz won’t be able to defend his champion’s points in Rome or Paris. It’s possible that Sinner could go from having never won a 1000 or a major on clay before April, to having won all four of them—Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros—by the middle of June.

Sinner, of course, still has to play the matches. Who might challenge him now?

We can start by saying that no one looks ready to fill Alcaraz’s shoes and make himself into a true rival of Sinner. The rest of the Top 10, not counting the also-absent Novak Djokovic, is a combined 15-53 against Sinner. There are a couple of highly-ranked guys who have troubled the Italian in recent years, like Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Bublik, but neither are at their best on clay.

Looking farther down the rankings list, we can see a few players who could use Alcaraz’s absence to rise up a level, and take their shot against Sinner.

Arthur Fils, after his win in Barcelona, was already a threat for the rest of the clay season. Now it’s possible to imagine the 21-year-old in the semis or the final of any of the upcoming events, including his home Slam in Paris. He and Sinner have only played once.

Rafael Jodar and Joao Fonseca, both 19, should join the contender conversation. They may not quite be ready to win a 1000 or a Slam, but they’ll benefit from not having Alcaraz around to teach them any lessons for the next six weeks.

Lorenzo Musetti, Flavio Cobolli and Andrey Rublev are all tough outs on clay who have had their ups and downs this season. Last year, Musetti lost to Alcaraz in the semifinals at Rome and RG. Last week, Rublev and Cobolli reached the finals in Barcelona and Munich, respectively. Their stock should rise in the coming weeks.

Even the American contingent should benefit. Last year in Paris, the U.S. had two quarterfinalists—Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe—for the first time since 1996. But nobody could get past Alcaraz, who eliminated both Paul and Ben Shelton. He won’t be in the way this time.

And what about the one Top 10 player I haven’t mentioned, Novak Djokovic? Depending on his health and his ambitions for clay, he may be the biggest winner of all. It was Alcaraz who blocked him from his 25th major title earlier this year at the Australian Open. He has said more than once that the idea of having to go through Sinner and Alcaraz back to back at any tournament is a daunting one, even for him. This cuts his task in half.

As for Sinner himself, the tests ahead won’t just come from his opponents. They’ll also come from inside. He may feel a little like Federer felt when Nadal lost to Robin Soderling at Roland Garros in 2009—i.e, “here’s my chance, I better not blow it.” That’s not always the ideal mindset. The day after Rafa lost, Federer nearly went out in straight sets to Tommy Haas. On Friday in Madrid, the same day Alcaraz announced his withdrawals, Sinner dropped the first set to Benjamin Bonzi.

But Federer came through in the end, and right now there’s no reason to believe Sinner won’t do the same. Maybe, by the time the clay swing is over, we’ll even have another rivalry on our hands.