Is Carlos Alcaraz pulling away from Jannik Sinner?

Major tournaments generally produce a feast of story lines. They stoke curiosity of fans, provide pundits with rocket fuel for speculations, and help keep the media machine click-clacking along. But it’s a little bit different this year at Indian Wells, where a single question dominates: Is Carlos Alcaraz pulling away from Jannik Sinner?

It may seem an unfair question so early in the year, and even earlier in this blossoming, potential rivalry-for-the-ages.

“How do we know when the script is flipped with these guys?” Brad Gilbert, who has coached multiple No. 1s, told me recently. “These guys are 24 (Sinner) and 22-years old, so this is a very early chapter in their history. It’s hard to call this some kind of trend.”

True enough. But just months ago, folks were wondering if these two men were destined to play every ATP and Grand Slam final from now until kingdom come. By the time Sinner landed the last blow in their competition, at the 2025 ATP Finals, the men had met 16 times, with Alcaraz holding a 10-6 edge.

But things have undoubtedly gone a bit sideways in the new year for Sinner, while Alcaraz has exploded from the blocks to reshape the narrative.

He's not going to beat Alcaraz because his drop shot’s better. He’s going to beat Alcaraz if he’s a version of Novak (Djokovic) at his best. Paul Annacone

Jimmy Arias, fellow Tennis Channel analyst, agreed with Gilbert that there is insufficient evidence to jump to conclusions.

“They have both pulled away from the [ATP] pack,” he said. “There’s a little distance between them now, too. Alcaraz looks to be ahead by a couple of car lengths, but let’s wait a week or two to see if that lasts.”

The men played each other in only two finals before their competition matured in 2025—during which they played six finals (4-2 for Alcaraz) including three at Slams (2-1 for the Spaniard). But a rivalry only exists if both players show up, and thus far this year Sinner has not answered the call. The failures have been noteworthy for a number of reasons.

Fitness counts in this rivalry, and Sinner has been somewhat vulnerable to cramping, most recently at the Australian Open, where the Italian star was the defending champion looking to three-peat. Perhaps significantly—and like Alcaraz—Sinner eschewed warm-up events and made his 2026 debut in Melbourne. He fell behind by a break in his third-round match with Eliot Spizzirri but, in a stroke of good fortune, the “heat stress” rule kicked in and play was delayed to allow closure of the roof—allowing Sinner time to recover his fitness.

Although Sinner survived that test, his next crucible was more mental than physical. He lost a sensational, five-set semifinal to 38-year-old Novak Djokovic. Sinner played poorly at times and ultimately failed to convert 16 of 18 break points in the five-set loss.

Still, Sinner was 22-1 in his most recent matches going into his second tournament of the year, at Doha. He had not lost before the final at consecutive tournaments in some 18 months, but he was eliminated in the quarterfinals by the 20-year-old Czech firebrand, Jakub Mensik.

Combined with the cramping/fitness issue, the recent losses have set some alarm bells ringing.

“Up until Sinner lost to Novak, I would have argued that maybe he is the one pulling away, because he was playing less but winning more,” elite coach and analyst Paul Annacone told me. “So in fairness it’s a little early to say Alcaraz is pulling away. We’re probably a major or two away from saying that.”

Annacone believes that if Sinner wins either or both of the imminent Sunshine Double tournaments, and then wins a Masters on clay, the Grand Slam season could offer a repeat of last year, when the two men swept the four majors.

Alcaraz looks to be ahead by a couple of car lengths, but let’s wait a week or two to see if that lasts. Jimmy Arias

Sinner has not been entirely confident in his ability to shape this rivalry, a feeling that came to a head after his four-set loss to Alcaraz in a surprisingly one-sided US Open final last September. The power baseliner has worked hard on adding greater variety to his game since early 2022, when he hired Simone Vagnozzi to undertake a complete “rebuild” of his game. But the desire to make better use of a serve that Vagnozzi had turned into a real weapon, and to become a less predictable player took on new life last fall, after Alcaraz built his edge in Grand Slam meetings to 4-2.

Disgruntled, Sinner trashed himself after that US Open loss for not playing a single serve-and-volley point and failing to make use of the drop shot. He said, “When you play against Carlos, you have to go out of the comfort zone. I'm going to aim to ... [try] to be a bit more unpredictable because I think that’s what I have to do.”

The inevitable question comes up: In abandoning his comfort zone—in getting away from that sometimes impregnable bread-and-butter game (based on consistency, power and foot speed—is Sinner throwing away his best strategy for upending Alcaraz?

“In a blasting battle, where you’re just thinking straight-ahead groundstrokes, Sinner probably beats Alcaraz,” Arias said. “So Alcaraz avoids those. When he’s playing his best there are very few holes, I don’t know where you go.

“I feel Alcaraz has had a little bit more of a game plan. He doesn't always play exactly the same against Sinner as he does against everybody else. He mixes things up more.”

Annacone put it more bluntly: “Therein lies the dilemma with an evolution of a player, right? It’s about your own identity and being true to that and trusting that when you max that out, that’s enough. Sinner is not going to beat Alcaraz because he’s coming to the net better, or more, than Alcaraz. He's not going to beat Alcaraz because his drop shot’s better. He’s going to beat Alcaraz if he’s a version of Novak (Djokovic) at his best.”

Gilbert believes it’s critical for Sinner to continue working on his fitness, and figuring out how to win long, exhausting matches. He would not be surprised if Sinner bounced back and still won the biggest hard-court events of the year.

if you all of a sudden call me up a year from now and ask, ‘Can Alcaraz catch up with Sinner?’ I wouldn’t be at all surprised. Brad Gilbert

Meanwhile, Alcaraz is off to a sensational start and loving every moment of it—including those that occur during barnburners like his own Australian Open semifinal, a brutal five-set war with Alexander Zverev. His smile has lit up the stadiums, his genius has almost always appeared effortless.

“The conventional wisdom was that Carlos might struggle out of the gate because he made this bold move,” Gilbert said, referring to Alcaraz’s unexpected parting late last year from long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferraro. “But here he is, 12-0 on the year.”

The early season record has left many feeling that Alcaraz has an increasing edge on Sinner, stoking fears that this ballyhooed rivalry may wash out and leave us with a lone man named dominating the game.

“Sinner needs to be true to his MO and stick with what he does best while still building a little bit of the things he’s been talking about,” Annacone suggested. “That will be challenging, though. My own opinion is that if the men play their absolute best, Alcaraz is just better. He does more things well, and more dangerously.”

But as Gilbert put it, “Alcaraz is in the pole position. He’s in front, no doubt. But if you all of a sudden call me up a year from now and ask, ‘Can Alcaraz catch up with Sinner?’ I wouldn’t be at all surprised.”