Will Carlos Alcaraz's revenge tour at Indian Wells continue against Jannik Sinner?

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

The summer of 2023 was highlighted by a thrilling new rivalry between Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The end of that season was defined by a nearly as fierce set of showdowns between Sinner and Djokovic.

Will the two younger members of that trivalry, Sinner and Alcaraz, give us the matchup that matters most in 2024?

The eighth edition of Sinneraz, or Janitos, or whatever mashup of names you prefer, will be held on Saturday, in the semifinals at Indian Wells. Sinner leads their head to head 4-3, and he won the last two meetings, in Miami and Beijing in 2023. Before that, Alcaraz had won two in a row, the first in a five-set classic at the 2022 US Open, and the second in a tough two-setter in the semis at Indian Wells a year ago.

Who will have the edge this time?

So far this year, Sinner has replaced Alcaraz as the phenom to beat. The Italian is 16-0 in 2024, a streak that includes his first major title, at the Australian Open. His improved serve and powerful penetrating ground strokes have combined to put a hammerlock on all of his opponents. He hasn’t lost a set in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz, by contrast, has slipped a bit from the dizzying heights he once occupied. He hasn’t won a title since Wimbledon, he admitted to losing some confidence in his game in the last two months, and he faced newfound skepticism about his form as he returned to defend his Indian Wells title. Has all of that motivated the 20-year-old to prove himself again? Since dropping the opening set to his first opponent, Matteo Arnaldi, Alcaraz has reverted to his old dominating, gunslinging ways. In his last two matches, he avenged a loss to Fabian Marozsan from last year, and one to Alexander Zverev from earlier this year.

Continuing that revenge tour against Sinner obviously won’t be as easy. Even two years ago, when Alcaraz was at his best and Sinner was still on the rise, the Italian held his own. His ability to rush Alcaraz from the baseline and win free points with his serve has made this a good matchup for Sinner. He has also been the more consistent performer in clutch moments for the past six months.

Will Sinner’s seemingly serene self-confidence carry him through yet another challenge? Or will Alcaraz’s desire to get his mojo back make the difference? No one would be surprised with either result.

I’ll say that Sinner will reign for another day, and I’ll hope that this is the start of a friendly tennis feud that takes center stage in 2024 and beyond. Winner: Sinner

Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul

Last week, I wrote about the future of three Americans in their mid-20s, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul. Collectively, they’ve put U.S. men’s tennis back on the map in recent years, but their rise up the rankings has collectively stalled just outside the Top 10. Will there be more to their story, or is this as far as they get?

Fritz and Tiafoe are both gone from Indian Wells, but Paul has survived into the semis. A match with Medvedev, at this late stage of a Masters 1000, is exactly the type of moment I was talking about for the Americans. History, rankings and conventional wisdom say that it will be the end of the road for Paul. While he’s a great player, most people surely believe he’s a tier below Medvedev.

This is a chance, in other words, for Paul to show that he’s got more in him. He’s coming off a run to the final in Delray, and he beat a former No. 2 player in Casper Ruud in three sets on Tuesday. Doing the same thing to Medvedev will be much bigger ask. Paul is 0-2 against the Russian, and has yet to find a formula that that will allow him break down the Russian’s cunning defenses.

Maybe Paul can take heart from the way that two other young players, Ugo Humbert and Sebastian Korda, successfully pressured Medvedev recently. Humbert beat him, and Korda took a set from him, by attacking relentlessly until each of them found a groove with their ground strokes that Medvedev couldn’t counter. It’s not easy, and it requires patience and belief, but Medvedev does give his opponents a chance to find a rhythm and get dialed in. Winner: Medvedev