Should you take Tommy Paul at +2.5 sets against Carlos Alcaraz?

I have been looking for ways to fade Tommy Paul throughout Roland Garros, as he has looked hampered by a lower abdomen injury he's referenced often. Paul has even noted that the injury was serious enough that it required MRIs. But Paul keeps shaking off the pain and finding ways to win, and his 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win over Alexei Popyrin—after two five-setters—was extremely impressive. That was the first match all tournament in which Paul didn’t look too bothered by anything. That should be huge as he gears up for this match against Alcaraz, a player he's beaten twice, and has played him close three other times.

I’m a bit nervous about Paul’s injuries flaring up the second I decide to back him. But you never want to bet scared. And realistically, even if Paul isn’t at 100% health, he can still give Alcaraz a match. Or, in our world, win at least one set.

For as good as Alcaraz is on clay, the defending Roland Goland champion hasn’t been otherwordly since arriving in Paris. He has dropped a set in three consecutive matches, against Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton. Alcaraz has been a bit sloppy with his decision making, and opponents that can extend points have the potential to push him. Paul can do that.

Paul is also one of the best returners on the planet. Heading into Roland Garros, Tennis Abstract had him fourth on the ATP Tour in break percentage (28.3%) over the last 52 weeks. He can put a lot of pressure on Alcaraz’s serve. If Paul just has a decent serving set himself, he should be able to find a way to get on the board.

Paul is also full of confidence and never stops fighting. That’s the type of player you generally want to back in a match. He won’t go to the court thinking a win is out of the realm of possibility, and he won’t back down if things start going south. We saw that when he took Jannik Sinner to a decider in Rome a couple of weeks ago.

With 2.5 sets in the bag at plus money, this is worth your wager.

Pick: Paul +2.5 Sets (+100)