Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner didn’t have an Indian Wells title, or a big win in 2026. Now they have both

The last time Draper faced Alcaraz, in the fourth round at the Australian Open, he was already out of gas. The Brit had survived three five-set matches in the span of six days; he had to go all the way to 10-8 in a final-set match tiebreaker to secure his third-round victory. So it was hardly a surprise when he lost the first two sets to the better-rested Alcaraz, and only slightly more surprising when he retired rather than try to play a third.

The rematch, from Draper’s point of view, will be held on a more level playing field. Neither he nor Alcaraz have dropped a set in their first four rounds at Indian Wells. And while Alcaraz has lost fewer games, Draper has had the more eye-opening run, beating Joao Fonseca 6-4, 6-0, and knocking out two Americans, Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, with higher rankings than him. Put this streak together with his runner-up finish in Doha last month, and a breakout year would seem to be on the horizon for the 14th-ranked Draper.

The 23-year-old, who has had an injury-riddled start to his career, is starting to sound convinced himself.

“Me and my coach are big believers that if I put my game on the court and if I do the right things, then, you know, I can honestly beat anyone,” Draper said on Thursday.

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By “anyone,” Draper might as well have said “Alcaraz,” because, along with Jannik Sinner, he’s the cream of the ATP crop. That’s especially true in Indian Wells, where the Spaniard is a two-time defending champion. Alcaraz is 3-1 against Draper; that includes a loss at Queen’s Club last year, a close win on indoor hard courts three years ago, and another retirement by Draper, at Indian Wells in 2023.

So far at this tournament, the Brit looks a guy who is evolving from a shot-maker to a competitor. He has served more effectively, he showed off a more complete all-court game than his American opponents, and he has the quiet confidence of someone who believes he’ll prevail in tight situations. A match with Alcaraz is the logical next test.

“He’s setting the benchmark really high,” Draper says of Alcaraz, “and that’s good for a player like myself because I watch him and play against him, and I think what I need to do to be at his level and to hopefully compete for big events…He absolutely loves these courts. And it would be another opportunity for me to show, you know, hopefully that I belong at the top again.”

Alcaraz knows that Draper is getting closer in his rearview mirror.

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Alcaraz is 3-1 against Draper; that includes a loss at Queen’s Club last year, a close win on indoor hard courts three years ago, and another retirement by Draper, at Indian Wells in 2023.

“He has a lot of rhythm, a lot of pace, great shots,” Alcaraz says. “I think his forehand with topspin bounce a lot, and a big serve.”

“It seems he’s in really good shape right now. I think he’s ambitious, and he always go for it. So that’s makes him a really tough opponent. I’m pretty sure he's gonna be one of the toughest on the tour in the future or in the next year.”

Alcaraz has looked and sounded pleased to be back on these courts, where he has now won 16 straight matches. He says he “feels peace” in the desert, and even asked the world if he should buy a house there.

That comfort and confidence means he remains the favorite here. Draper will be able to swing his lefty serve and forehand away from Alcaraz’s bet shot, his forehand. But the Spaniard still has the more explosive ground strokes, and is still the better and more spectacular defender. His game can go off, of course, as it briefly did on Thursday night against Francisco Cerundolo. I think Draper will be ready to take advantage of any dip from Alcaraz and win a set. But a match? Maybe not quite yet. Winner: Alcaraz — Steve Tignor

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Betting Odds

Alcaraz is a -285 moneyline favorite; Draper is a +225 underdog.

To win the first set, Alcaraz is -235 and Draper is +165.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Friday, March 14.)

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