Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Wimbledon final betting preview

Carlos Alcaraz has won five matches in a row against Jannik Sinner, and he’ll look to maintain that dominance when they meet in the Wimbledon final. Alcaraz will also be doing it against a wounded Sinner. And when I say that, I mean mentally, not physically. After blowing losing a two-set lead, and letting three championship points slip through his fingers in the Roland Garros final, Sinner will dealing with some demons when he sees his rival on the other side of the net.

The question is, can he put all of that aside, pick up another major title, and show the world that he’s not going to allow this matchup to turn into one-way traffic? I think he can.

As far as the mental stuff goes, Sinner’s team is going to consistently remind him that he was a good shot or two away from beating Alcaraz. That might sound a little simple, but that’s the truth. Sinner had chances to win that match in Paris, but he got a little tight on short balls and didn’t put Alcaraz away often enough. The match was on Sinner’s racquet—at least early on.

Moving over to grass, things get interesting. It’s harder to finish points against Alcaraz on clay, where the bounces are a little slower and higher. On this slicker surface (even if a little slower because of all the wear-and-tear of the last two weeks and the warmer weather), Sinner’s heavy shots should be harder for Alcaraz to get back. That’s true even if the Italian continues to play a safer style from the back of the court. However, I do think that Sinner is going to learn some lessons from Paris and aim for smaller targets when he needs to. He can’t just let Alcaraz be the one ripping winners left and right. He needs to push back a little, and he has the ability to do it.

I also think there’s a real reason to believe Sinner is going to serve well in this match. Sinner made 61.6% of his first serves last season, and he’s making 61.4% of his first serves this season. The reason that’s significant is that he has made only 56.3% of his first serves, or lower, in three of his last four matches against Alcaraz. Of course, the Spaniard’s elite returning puts pressure on Sinner to do more than just place serves in the box. But the Italian can, and should, have a much better serving performance against Alcaraz in the near future. If it happens here, where his ball striking will already be difficult for the Spaniard to overcome, we’re going to see Sinner in the winner’s circle.

The serve hasn’t been as consistent for Alcaraz this tournament as it has been throughout the course of his 24-match winning streak. And if he’s not hitting his spots against Sinner, the Italian will make him pay. There won’t be any letting up from Sinner this time around.

There’s also a little on the mental side that might lean Sinner’s way. If he can get over the trauma of Roland Garros, he’ll play with a desperation that Alcaraz simply can’t match. That’s real in sports. Sinner desperately wants to right the ship against Alcaraz, get back in the conversation and move on from Paris. That could help him find an unreachable fire. It’s why teams that lose Game 1 in the playoffs tend to win Game 2.

Sinner was also gifted a second chance in this tournament with Grigor Dimitrov having to retire with a two-set lead in the Round of 16. That might have taken all of the pressure off the Italian, and it also might have served as a sign that Sinner is meant to get his revenge.

Pick: Sinner ML (+100)