Carlos Alcaraz will keep his No. 2 ranking despite missing Rome and Roland Garros

The tennis world was rocked late last week as Carlos Alcaraz announced his withdrawal from Rome and Roland Garros, both of which he won last year, due to a right wrist injury.

By missing those two title defenses, he’s going to to lose a big batch of ranking points—3,000 in total, 1,000 from Rome and 2,000 from Roland Garros—dropping his total from 12,960 right now to 9,960 by the end of the clay-court season.

But there is one thing he won’t lose—his No. 2 ranking.

Even after dropping all of those ranking points, Alcaraz is guaranteed to keep his No. 2 ranking through the end of the clay-court season, no matter how anyone else does.

Alexander Zverev, the current No. 3, can get the closest.

Currently at 5,255 ranking points, if the German captures back-to-back Masters 1000 titles in Madrid and Rome, the ATP 500 event in Hamburg the week after (where he’s entered) as well as his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros, he would finish the clay-court season with 8,955 points.

That number takes into account all of the points that he’s defending during that stretch, too, including from quarterfinal showings at Rome and Roland Garros last year.

On the other side of Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner is guaranteed to keep his No. 1 ranking, and could even build on his lead.

Currently at 13,350 points, assuming he doesn’t enter any tournaments the week between Rome and Roland Garros, he could finish the clay-court season with anywhere between 11,500 and 15,400 points. To finish at the bottom of that range, he would need to lose his next match in Madrid and not even play Rome or Roland Garros. To finish at the top of that range, he would need to win Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.

Wherever he ends up on the ranking points front, the four-time Grand Slam champion will spend his 69th through 74th weeks at the top spot during the rest of the clay-court season and hit 75 in the first week of the grass-court swing.